Aldosivi
vs
River Plate
Garuda Lions Prediction: River Plate
0 – 1 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.62 vs 0.98.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — River Plate is the favourite, not a value bet.
Aldosivi vs River Plate overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Aldosivi vs River Plate
| Probability | Aldosivi | Draw | River Plate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21.5% | 27.2% | 51.3% |
| Market | 12.0% | 21.2% | 66.8% |
| Final | 14.4% | 22.7% | 62.9% |
| Edge | +2.4% | +1.5% | -3.9% |
Why River Plate
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.62 vs 0.98.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.45, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.8% per unit staked (our 62.9% × 1.45 − 1).
Aldosivi vs River Plate match preview
Aldosivi faces River Plate in the Liga Profesional Argentina, with River Plate holding a significant advantage in the probabilities at 63%, compared to Aldosivi's 14%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1, with River Plate expected to generate 1.62 expected goals against Aldosivi's 0.98.
Recent form shows Aldosivi with a mixed record of L-W-L-L-L-W, while River Plate has recorded L-W-W-D-W-L. Historically, River Plate has dominated this matchup, winning 7 of the last 9 encounters, with Aldosivi securing just 1 victory and 1 draw. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 48%, and both teams to score sits at 51%, indicating a competitive match ahead.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Aldosivi and River Plate expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.60
Aldosivi and River Plate attack and defence ratings
Aldosivi
River Plate
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 16 fixtures
- Gimnasia L.P. v Belgrano Cordoba — match page
- Barracas Central vs Racing Club
- Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield
- Independiente v Deportivo Riestra — match page
- San Lorenzo v Platense — match page
- Banfield v Atletico Tucuman — match page
- Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin
- Talleres Cordoba vs Estudiantes L.P. — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Aldosivi vs River Plate markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | River Plate | 62.9% | 1.59 | -3.9% | 1.45 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.9% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.2% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 85.6% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.7% | 2.05 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aldosivi | 14.4% |
| Draw | 22.7% | |
| River Plate | 62.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 51.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.2% |
| No | 48.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 37.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 85.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | River Plate win | 28.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.3% | |
| Loss | 48.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.0% |
| 0-1 | 10.9% | |
| 0-2 | 9.8% |
Aldosivi vs River Plate stats
Aldosivi and River Plate recent form
| Aldosivi |
LWLLLW |
| River Plate |
LWWDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Aldosivi and River Plate season so far
Aldosivi record
- They have won 3 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 31 matches.
River Plate record
- They have won 19 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 8 penalties (75%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Aldosivi vs River Plate head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | River Plate | Aldosivi | Copa Argentina | 1-3 |
| 2026-04-26 | River Plate | Aldosivi | Liga Profesional Argentina | 3-1 |
| 2022-07-24 | Aldosivi | River Plate | Liga Profesional Argentina | 0-3 |
| 2021-08-27 | River Plate | Aldosivi | Liga Profesional Argentina | 2-0 |
| 2021-05-09 | River Plate | Aldosivi | Liga Profesional Argentina | 4-1 |
| 2019-11-02 | Aldosivi | River Plate | Liga Profesional Argentina | 1-2 |
| 2018-10-27 | River Plate | Aldosivi | Liga Profesional Argentina | 1-0 |
| 2017-06-22 | River Plate | Aldosivi | Liga Profesional Argentina | 1-0 |
| 2015-10-18 | River Plate | Aldosivi | Liga Profesional Argentina | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Aldosivi vs River Plate odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 12.0%, draw 21.2%, away 66.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 8.15 | 4.54 | 1.41 |
| Bet365 | 8.00 | 4.50 | 1.42 |
| BetVictor | 8.00 | 4.40 | 1.40 |
| Betano | 8.25 | 4.70 | 1.45 |
| Betfair | 7.00 | 4.33 | 1.40 |
| Dafabet | 7.20 | 4.40 | 1.42 |
| Marathonbet | 8.00 | 4.45 | 1.38 |
| Pinnacle | 7.60 | 4.74 | 1.40 |
| SBO | 6.95 | 4.20 | 1.38 |
| William Hill | 6.50 | 4.00 | 1.44 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .