Gimnasia L.P.
vs
Belgrano Cordoba
Garuda Lions Prediction: Gimnasia L.P.
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.65 vs 0.94.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Gimnasia L.P. vs Belgrano Cordoba overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Gimnasia L.P. vs Belgrano Cordoba
| Probability | Gimnasia L.P. | Draw | Belgrano Cordoba |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.0% | 26.8% | 20.2% |
| Market | 41.6% | 29.2% | 29.2% |
| Final | 44.4% | 28.6% | 26.9% |
| Edge | +2.9% | -0.6% | -2.3% |
Why Gimnasia L.P.
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.65 vs 0.94.
- The market prices Gimnasia L.P. below our published probability: +2.9 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.33, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +3.6% per unit staked (our 44.4% × 2.33 − 1).
Gimnasia L.P. vs Belgrano Cordoba match preview
Gimnasia L.P. enters this match with a solid recent form, having secured three wins and two draws in their last six games. Their expected goals stand at 1.65, indicating a strong attacking presence, while their defense has been relatively stable. The model suggests a 44% probability of Gimnasia winning, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0 at 11%.
On the other hand, Belgrano Cordoba has shown mixed results recently, with two wins but also two losses in their last six fixtures. They have an expected goals figure of 0.94, reflecting challenges in their offensive play. The probability of a draw is estimated at 29%, and both teams have a 50% chance of scoring, suggesting a potentially competitive match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Gimnasia L.P. and Belgrano Cordoba expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.59
Gimnasia L.P. and Belgrano Cordoba attack and defence ratings
Gimnasia L.P.
Belgrano Cordoba
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 16 fixtures
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- Independiente v Deportivo Riestra — match page
- San Lorenzo v Platense — match page
- Banfield v Atletico Tucuman — match page
- Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin
- Talleres Cordoba vs Estudiantes L.P. — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Gimnasia L.P. vs Belgrano Cordoba markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gimnasia L.P. | 44.4% | 2.25 | +2.9% | 2.33 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.2% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.3% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.1% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.0% | 2.13 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gimnasia L.P. | 44.4% |
| Draw | 28.6% | |
| Belgrano Cordoba | 26.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.3% |
| No | 49.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Gimnasia L.P. win | 29.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.7% | |
| Loss | 47.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.8% |
| 1-0 | 11.3% | |
| 2-0 | 10.3% |
Gimnasia L.P. vs Belgrano Cordoba stats
Gimnasia L.P. and Belgrano Cordoba recent form
| Gimnasia L.P. |
WWWDDD |
| Belgrano Cordoba |
DLLWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Gimnasia L.P. and Belgrano Cordoba season so far
Gimnasia L.P. record
- They have won 17 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 8 penalties (62%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Belgrano Cordoba record
- They have won 17 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 16 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
Gimnasia L.P. vs Belgrano Cordoba head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Belgrano Cordoba | Gimnasia L.P. | Liga Profesional Argentina | 0-1 |
| 2024-08-26 | Belgrano Cordoba | Gimnasia L.P. | Liga Profesional Argentina | 0-1 |
| 2023-04-16 | Gimnasia L.P. | Belgrano Cordoba | Liga Profesional Argentina | 0-2 |
| 2018-11-02 | Belgrano Cordoba | Gimnasia L.P. | Liga Profesional Argentina | 2-0 |
| 2017-11-25 | Belgrano Cordoba | Gimnasia L.P. | Liga Profesional Argentina | 2-0 |
| 2016-12-10 | Gimnasia L.P. | Belgrano Cordoba | Liga Profesional Argentina | 1-1 |
| 2015-05-30 | Belgrano Cordoba | Gimnasia L.P. | Liga Profesional Argentina | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Gimnasia L.P. vs Belgrano Cordoba odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.6%, draw 29.2%, away 29.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.29 | 3.19 | 3.30 |
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.30 | 3.20 |
| BetVictor | 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.13 |
| Betano | 2.30 | 3.20 | 3.30 |
| Betfair | 2.25 | 3.30 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.19 | 3.30 | 3.20 |
| Marathonbet | 2.24 | 3.12 | 3.24 |
| Pinnacle | 2.33 | 3.02 | 3.47 |
| SBO | 2.15 | 3.16 | 3.04 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 3.10 | 3.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .