Independiente
vs
Deportivo Riestra
Garuda Lions Prediction: Independiente
1 – 0 Predicted score · 19% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.08 vs 0.61.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Independiente is the favourite, not a value bet.
Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra
| Probability | Independiente | Draw | Deportivo Riestra |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45.3% | 35.3% | 19.4% |
| Market | 57.7% | 26.7% | 15.6% |
| Final | 54.6% | 28.9% | 16.5% |
| Edge | -3.1% | +2.1% | +1.0% |
Why Independiente
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.08 vs 0.61.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.65, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.9% per unit staked (our 54.6% × 1.65 − 1).
Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra match preview
Independiente faces Deportivo Riestra in their upcoming Liga Profesional match, with Independiente holding a 51% probability of winning compared to Deportivo Riestra's 19%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, with an expected goals metric of 1.08 for Independiente and 0.61 for Deportivo Riestra. Recent form shows Independiente with a mixed record of D-L-D-D-L-W, while Deportivo Riestra has struggled, recording L-L-D-L-D-D.
In their last five encounters, Independiente has secured 2 wins, while Deportivo Riestra has also won 2, with 1 match ending in a draw. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 24%, and the probability of both teams scoring is 31%. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, indicating moderate certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Independiente and Deportivo Riestra expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.68
Independiente and Deportivo Riestra attack and defence ratings
Independiente
Deportivo Riestra
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 16 fixtures
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- Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield
- San Lorenzo v Platense — match page
- Banfield v Atletico Tucuman — match page
- Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin
- Talleres Cordoba vs Estudiantes L.P. — team news & stats
- Gimnasia M. vs Independ. Rivadavia — team news & stats
- Rosario Central vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Independiente | 54.6% | 1.83 | -3.1% | 1.65 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 76.2% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 68.8% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.5% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.7% | 1.83 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Independiente | 54.6% |
| Draw | 28.9% | |
| Deportivo Riestra | 16.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 23.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 76.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 31.2% |
| No | 68.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Independiente win | 19.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.0% | |
| Loss | 54.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 19.8% |
| 1-0 | 18.8% | |
| 1-1 | 13.4% |
Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra stats
Independiente and Deportivo Riestra recent form
| Independiente |
DLDDLW |
| Deportivo Riestra |
LLDLDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Independiente and Deportivo Riestra season so far
Independiente record
- They have won 11 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Deportivo Riestra record
- They have won 3 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They average 0.8 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 20 of 31 matches.
Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | Deportivo Riestra | Independiente | Liga Profesional Argentina | 2-0 |
| 2025-11-10 | Deportivo Riestra | Independiente | Liga Profesional Argentina | 0-1 |
| 2025-04-28 | Independiente | Deportivo Riestra | Liga Profesional Argentina | 0-0 |
| 2024-10-06 | Independiente | Deportivo Riestra | Liga Profesional Argentina | 3-1 |
| 2024-03-15 | Deportivo Riestra | Independiente | Copa de la Liga Profesional | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 57.7%, draw 26.7%, away 15.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.64 | 3.54 | 6.18 |
| Bet365 | 1.62 | 3.50 | 6.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.62 | 3.50 | 6.00 |
| Betano | 1.65 | 3.55 | 6.20 |
| Betfair | 1.62 | 3.50 | 5.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.63 | 3.45 | 6.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.61 | 3.46 | 6.05 |
| Pinnacle | 1.62 | 3.60 | 5.94 |
| SBO | 1.55 | 3.19 | 5.32 |
| William Hill | 1.62 | 3.40 | 5.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .