Defensa Y Justicia
vs
Independiente
Garuda Lions Prediction: Defensa Y Justicia
1 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.78 vs 0.66.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Defensa Y Justicia vs Independiente overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Defensa Y Justicia vs Independiente
| Probability | Defensa Y Justicia | Draw | Independiente |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63.2% | 24.5% | 12.3% |
| Market | 41.5% | 30.1% | 28.3% |
| Final | 47.0% | 28.7% | 24.3% |
| Edge | +5.4% | -1.4% | -4.0% |
Why Defensa Y Justicia
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.78 vs 0.66.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Defensa Y Justicia below our published probability: +5.4 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.34, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +9.9% per unit staked (our 47.0% × 2.34 − 1).
Defensa Y Justicia vs Independiente match preview
Defensa Y Justicia faces Independiente in an intriguing Liga Profesional Argentina clash. According to our model, Defensa Y Justicia holds a 47% probability of winning, while Independiente's chances stand at 24%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of Defensa Y Justicia, with an expected goals tally of 1.78 for them and 0.75 for Independiente. Recent form shows Defensa Y Justicia with three wins in their last five matches, while Independiente has two wins in the same period.
In their last head-to-head encounter, Independiente emerged victorious, with Defensa Y Justicia yet to secure a win against them. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 46%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 45%. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Defensa Y Justicia and Independiente expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.44
Defensa Y Justicia and Independiente attack and defence ratings
Defensa Y Justicia
Independiente
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 15 fixtures
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- Racing Club v Aldosivi — match page
- Sarmiento Junin vs Rosario Central
- Deportivo Riestra v Talleres Cordoba — match page
- Velez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo — team news & stats
- Estudiantes L.P. v Instituto Cordoba — match page
- Boca Juniors vs River Plate — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Defensa Y Justicia vs Independiente markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Defensa Y Justicia | 47.0% | 2.13 | +5.4% | 2.34 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.8% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 58.7% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.7% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Defensa Y Justicia win | 37.7% | 2.66 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Defensa Y Justicia | 47.0% |
| Draw | 28.7% | |
| Independiente | 24.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41.3% |
| No | 58.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Defensa Y Justicia win | 37.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.6% | |
| Loss | 36.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 14.4% |
| 2-0 | 13.8% | |
| 1-1 | 11.3% |
Defensa Y Justicia vs Independiente stats
Defensa Y Justicia and Independiente recent form
| Defensa Y Justicia |
WLWWDW |
| Independiente |
LDDLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Defensa Y Justicia and Independiente season so far
Defensa Y Justicia record
- They have won 11 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
Independiente record
- They have won 11 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 30 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Defensa Y Justicia vs Independiente head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Independiente | Defensa Y Justicia | Liga Profesional Argentina | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Defensa Y Justicia vs Independiente odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.5%, draw 30.1%, away 28.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.34 | 3.10 | 3.30 |
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| BetVictor | 2.20 | 3.20 | 3.25 |
| Betano | 2.27 | 3.10 | 3.45 |
| Betfair | 2.25 | 3.25 | 3.10 |
| Dafabet | 2.19 | 3.10 | 3.30 |
| Marathonbet | 2.29 | 3.04 | 3.24 |
| Pinnacle | 2.27 | 3.21 | 3.35 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 3.00 | 3.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .