Sarmiento Junin
vs
Rosario Central
Garuda Lions Prediction: Rosario Central
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 1.08.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Rosario Central is the favourite, not a value bet.
Sarmiento Junin vs Rosario Central overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sarmiento Junin vs Rosario Central
| Probability | Sarmiento Junin | Draw | Rosario Central |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21.5% | 25.2% | 53.3% |
| Market | 24.4% | 29.4% | 46.3% |
| Final | 23.6% | 28.3% | 48.0% |
| Edge | -0.7% | -1.0% | +1.8% |
Why Rosario Central
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 1.08.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.15, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +3.3% per unit staked (our 48.0% × 2.15 − 1).
Sarmiento Junin vs Rosario Central match preview
Sarmiento Junin faces Rosario Central in an upcoming Liga Profesional Argentina match, with Rosario Central holding a significant advantage in their recent head-to-head encounters, winning all three of their last matches against Sarmiento. The current form indicates that Sarmiento has struggled, recording one win in their last six matches, while Rosario Central has been in strong form with four wins in their last six.
According to our model, the probabilities suggest a 26% chance for Sarmiento Junin to win, a 29% chance for a draw, and a 45% chance for Rosario Central to secure victory. The expected goals are 1.23 for Sarmiento and 1.76 for Rosario Central, indicating a likely scoreline of 1-2, with a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sarmiento Junin and Rosario Central expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.89
Sarmiento Junin and Rosario Central attack and defence ratings
Sarmiento Junin
Rosario Central
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 15 fixtures
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- Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto vs Gimnasia L.P.
- Racing Club v Aldosivi — match page
- Defensa Y Justicia v Independiente — match page
- Deportivo Riestra v Talleres Cordoba — match page
- Velez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo — team news & stats
- Estudiantes L.P. v Instituto Cordoba — match page
- Boca Juniors vs River Plate — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Sarmiento Junin vs Rosario Central markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rosario Central | 48.0% | 2.08 | +1.8% | 2.15 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.3% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.4% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 76.4% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.7% | 2.14 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sarmiento Junin | 23.6% |
| Draw | 28.3% | |
| Rosario Central | 48.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.4% |
| No | 43.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 52.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 76.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Rosario Central win | 30.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.6% | |
| Loss | 46.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.9% |
| 1-2 | 9.8% | |
| 0-2 | 9.1% |
Sarmiento Junin vs Rosario Central stats
Sarmiento Junin and Rosario Central recent form
| Sarmiento Junin |
LDDWLD |
| Rosario Central |
WWWDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sarmiento Junin and Rosario Central season so far
Sarmiento Junin record
- They have won 12 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
Rosario Central record
- They have won 17 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sarmiento Junin vs Rosario Central head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Rosario Central | Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina | 2-1 |
| 2025-10-24 | Sarmiento Junin | Rosario Central | Liga Profesional Argentina | 0-1 |
| 2025-02-23 | Rosario Central | Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sarmiento Junin vs Rosario Central odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 24.4%, draw 29.4%, away 46.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.00 | 3.32 | 1.99 |
| Bet365 | 3.60 | 3.00 | 2.15 |
| BetVictor | 3.70 | 3.25 | 2.00 |
| Betano | 3.90 | 3.15 | 2.10 |
| Betfair | 3.60 | 3.00 | 2.15 |
| Dafabet | 3.70 | 3.05 | 2.07 |
| Marathonbet | 3.92 | 3.25 | 1.95 |
| Pinnacle | 4.15 | 3.37 | 1.94 |
| William Hill | 3.80 | 3.10 | 2.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .