Gimnasia L.P.
vs
Sarmiento Junin
Garuda Lions Prediction: Gimnasia L.P.
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.97 vs 1.49.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Gimnasia L.P. is the favourite, not a value bet.
Gimnasia L.P. vs Sarmiento Junin overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Gimnasia L.P. vs Sarmiento Junin
| Probability | Gimnasia L.P. | Draw | Sarmiento Junin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.9% | 23.7% | 28.4% |
| Market | 56.4% | 25.9% | 17.7% |
| Final | 54.3% | 25.4% | 20.4% |
| Edge | -2.1% | -0.6% | +2.7% |
Why Gimnasia L.P.
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.97 vs 1.49.
Best available price on the pick: 1.68, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.8% per unit staked (our 54.3% × 1.68 − 1).
Gimnasia L.P. vs Sarmiento Junin match preview
Gimnasia L.P. enters the match with a probability of 54% to win against Sarmiento Junin, who has a 20% chance of victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1 in favor of Gimnasia, with an expected goals tally of 1.97 for Gimnasia and 1.49 for Sarmiento. Additionally, there is a strong likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 67% and both teams scoring at 68%.
In terms of recent form, Gimnasia L.P. has recorded one win, followed by four draws, while Sarmiento Junin has two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last six matches. The head-to-head record over the last ten encounters shows Gimnasia L.P. with three wins, Sarmiento Junin with two, and five matches ending in a draw.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Gimnasia L.P. and Sarmiento Junin expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.46
Gimnasia L.P. and Sarmiento Junin attack and defence ratings
Gimnasia L.P.
Sarmiento Junin
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 14 fixtures
- Gimnasia M. vs Platense — team news & stats
- Tigre vs Atletico Tucuman
- Banfield vs Lanus — team news & stats
- Talleres Cordoba vs Defensa Y Justicia — team news & stats
- San Lorenzo v Newells Old Boys — match page
- Rosario Central vs Huracan
- Aldosivi vs Belgrano Cordoba — team news & stats
- Independiente v Boca Juniors — match page
Before and after this match
Gimnasia L.P. vs Sarmiento Junin markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gimnasia L.P. | 54.3% | 1.84 | -2.1% | 1.68 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.1% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.6% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.6% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.1% | 1.92 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gimnasia L.P. | 54.3% |
| Draw | 25.4% | |
| Sarmiento Junin | 20.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.6% |
| No | 32.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Gimnasia L.P. win | 27.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.1% | |
| Loss | 52.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.2% |
| 2-1 | 9.1% | |
| 1-2 | 6.9% |
Gimnasia L.P. vs Sarmiento Junin stats
Gimnasia L.P. and Sarmiento Junin recent form
| Gimnasia L.P. |
WDDDDW |
| Sarmiento Junin |
DDWLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Gimnasia L.P. and Sarmiento Junin season so far
Gimnasia L.P. record
- They have won 15 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 8 penalties (62%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sarmiento Junin record
- They have won 12 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
Gimnasia L.P. vs Sarmiento Junin head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-13 | Sarmiento Junin | Gimnasia L.P. | Liga Profesional Argentina | 1-2 |
| 2025-10-04 | Sarmiento Junin | Gimnasia L.P. | Liga Profesional Argentina | 0-1 |
| 2025-03-30 | Gimnasia L.P. | Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina | 0-0 |
| 2024-10-18 | Sarmiento Junin | Gimnasia L.P. | Liga Profesional Argentina | 1-1 |
| 2023-05-27 | Gimnasia L.P. | Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina | 0-0 |
| 2022-08-28 | Sarmiento Junin | Gimnasia L.P. | Liga Profesional Argentina | 0-0 |
| 2022-04-15 | Gimnasia L.P. | Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina | 1-3 |
| 2021-10-03 | Gimnasia L.P. | Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina | 0-1 |
| 2021-05-03 | Sarmiento Junin | Gimnasia L.P. | Liga Profesional Argentina | 0-0 |
| 2017-03-25 | Gimnasia L.P. | Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Gimnasia L.P. vs Sarmiento Junin odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 56.4%, draw 25.9%, away 17.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.68 | 3.70 | 5.30 |
| Bet365 | 1.67 | 3.50 | 6.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.62 | 3.60 | 5.50 |
| Betano | 1.67 | 3.70 | 5.40 |
| Betfair | 1.67 | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.63 | 3.70 | 5.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.65 | 3.62 | 5.20 |
| Pinnacle | 1.65 | 3.87 | 5.29 |
| SBO | 1.56 | 3.34 | 4.83 |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 3.50 | 4.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
18 snapshots recorded, from .