Tigre
vs
Atletico Tucuman
Garuda Lions Prediction: Tigre
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Tigre is the favourite, not a value bet.
Tigre vs Atletico Tucuman overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Tigre vs Atletico Tucuman
| Probability | Tigre | Draw | Atletico Tucuman |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.0% | 28.0% | 35.0% |
| Market | 55.5% | 27.5% | 17.0% |
| Final | 50.9% | 27.6% | 21.5% |
| Edge | -4.6% | +0.1% | +4.5% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.75, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.0% per unit staked (our 50.9% × 1.75 − 1).
Tigre vs Atletico Tucuman match preview
Tigre faces Atletico Tucuman in a closely matched encounter, with Tigre holding a 51% probability of winning compared to 22% for Atletico Tucuman and a 28% chance of a draw. The expected goals for Tigre stand at 1.39, while Atletico Tucuman is slightly behind at 1.35. Our model suggests a likely scoreline of 2-1 in favor of Tigre, occurring with an 8% probability.
Both teams have struggled in recent matches, with Tigre recording six consecutive games without a win (D-L-L-L-L-L) and Atletico Tucuman following a similar pattern (L-D-L-L-D-L). Historical head-to-head results show Tigre with 1 win, 5 draws, and Atletico Tucuman also with 1 win in their last 7 meetings. The model indicates a 52% chance for over 2.5 goals and a 57% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Tigre and Atletico Tucuman expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.74
Tigre and Atletico Tucuman attack and defence ratings
Tigre
Atletico Tucuman
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 14 fixtures
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- Gimnasia M. vs Platense — team news & stats
- Banfield vs Lanus — team news & stats
- Talleres Cordoba vs Defensa Y Justicia — team news & stats
- San Lorenzo v Newells Old Boys — match page
- Rosario Central vs Huracan
- Aldosivi vs Belgrano Cordoba — team news & stats
- Independiente v Boca Juniors — match page
Before and after this match
Tigre vs Atletico Tucuman markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tigre | 50.9% | 1.97 | -4.6% | 1.75 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.7% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.9% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.5% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 63.0% | 1.59 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tigre | 50.9% |
| Draw | 27.6% | |
| Atletico Tucuman | 21.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.9% |
| No | 43.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 49.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Tigre win | 17.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.3% | |
| Loss | 63.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.3% |
| 2-1 | 8.4% | |
| 1-2 | 8.2% |
Tigre vs Atletico Tucuman stats
Tigre and Atletico Tucuman recent form
| Tigre |
DLLLLL |
| Atletico Tucuman |
LDLLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Tigre and Atletico Tucuman season so far
Tigre record
- They have won 7 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Atletico Tucuman record
- They have won 6 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tigre vs Atletico Tucuman head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Atletico Tucuman | Tigre | Liga Profesional Argentina | 0-0 |
| 2024-10-08 | Atletico Tucuman | Tigre | Liga Profesional Argentina | 1-2 |
| 2023-05-21 | Tigre | Atletico Tucuman | Liga Profesional Argentina | 0-0 |
| 2022-08-17 | Tigre | Atletico Tucuman | Liga Profesional Argentina | 0-0 |
| 2018-09-15 | Atletico Tucuman | Tigre | Liga Profesional Argentina | 3-0 |
| 2018-02-25 | Atletico Tucuman | Tigre | Liga Profesional Argentina | 0-0 |
| 2016-12-20 | Tigre | Atletico Tucuman | Liga Profesional Argentina | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Tigre vs Atletico Tucuman odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 55.5%, draw 27.5%, away 17.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.70 | 3.52 | 5.51 |
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 3.30 | 6.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.67 | 3.40 | 5.50 |
| Betano | 1.75 | 3.60 | 5.70 |
| Betfair | 1.70 | 3.40 | 5.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.75 | 3.30 | 5.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.67 | 3.45 | 5.40 |
| Pinnacle | 1.67 | 3.66 | 5.49 |
| SBO | 1.61 | 3.10 | 4.84 |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 3.30 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
19 snapshots recorded, from .