San Lorenzo
vs
Newells Old Boys
Garuda Lions Prediction: Draw
0 – 0 Predicted score · 23% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this, so it is not a value bet.
San Lorenzo vs Newells Old Boys overview
Garuda Lions analysis: San Lorenzo vs Newells Old Boys
| Probability | San Lorenzo | Draw | Newells Old Boys |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25.2% | 38.9% | 35.9% |
| Market | 38.1% | 33.6% | 28.3% |
| Final | 34.9% | 34.9% | 30.2% |
| Edge | -3.2% | +1.3% | +1.9% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.90, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.3% per unit staked (our 34.9% × 2.90 − 1).
San Lorenzo vs Newells Old Boys match preview
San Lorenzo faces Newells Old Boys in a Liga Profesional Argentina match with a kickoff scheduled for October 24, 2026. According to our model, San Lorenzo has a 35% chance of winning, while both a draw and a Newells Old Boys victory are at 35% and 30%, respectively. The most likely scoreline is a 0-0 draw, with a probability of 23%. The expected goals for San Lorenzo stand at 0.66, while Newells Old Boys is projected at 0.84.
In terms of recent form, San Lorenzo has recorded two wins, two losses, and a draw in their last five matches, while Newells Old Boys has achieved two wins, three draws, and one loss. The head-to-head record shows that in their last encounter, there were no wins for either team, resulting in one draw. The confidence grade for this match is rated as C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
San Lorenzo and Newells Old Boys expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.51
San Lorenzo and Newells Old Boys attack and defence ratings
San Lorenzo
Newells Old Boys
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
San Lorenzo vs Newells Old Boys markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Draw | 34.9% | 2.86 | +1.3% | 2.90 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 80.7% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 71.2% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.8% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 74.8% | 1.34 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | San Lorenzo | 34.9% |
| Draw | 34.9% | |
| Newells Old Boys | 30.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 19.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 80.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 28.8% |
| No | 71.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 65.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 65.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | San Lorenzo win | 7.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.9% | |
| Loss | 74.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 23.4% |
| 0-1 | 17.5% | |
| 1-1 | 13.6% |
San Lorenzo vs Newells Old Boys stats
San Lorenzo and Newells Old Boys recent form
| San Lorenzo |
WWLLDW |
| Newells Old Boys |
WLDWDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
San Lorenzo and Newells Old Boys season so far
San Lorenzo record
- They have won 9 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 29 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Newells Old Boys record
- They have won 7 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
San Lorenzo vs Newells Old Boys head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Newells Old Boys | San Lorenzo | Liga Profesional Argentina | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
San Lorenzo vs Newells Old Boys odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 38.1%, draw 33.6%, away 28.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.46 | 2.82 | 3.42 |
| Bet365 | 2.50 | 2.88 | 3.20 |
| BetVictor | 2.45 | 2.88 | 3.13 |
| Betano | 2.55 | 2.75 | 3.40 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 2.90 | 3.40 |
| Dafabet | 2.45 | 2.80 | 3.25 |
| Marathonbet | 2.41 | 2.76 | 3.35 |
| Pinnacle | 2.58 | 2.70 | 3.43 |
| SBO | 2.23 | 2.72 | 3.00 |
| William Hill | 2.45 | 2.70 | 3.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .