Newells Old Boys
vs
Union Santa Fe
Garuda Lions Prediction: Newells Old Boys
1 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.52 vs 0.72.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Newells Old Boys vs Union Santa Fe overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Newells Old Boys vs Union Santa Fe
| Probability | Newells Old Boys | Draw | Union Santa Fe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55.3% | 28.2% | 16.5% |
| Market | 42.8% | 30.0% | 27.2% |
| Final | 45.9% | 29.6% | 24.5% |
| Edge | +3.1% | -0.5% | -2.7% |
Why Newells Old Boys
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.52 vs 0.72.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Newells Old Boys below our published probability: +3.1 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.22, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.9% per unit staked (our 45.9% × 2.22 − 1).
Newells Old Boys vs Union Santa Fe match preview
Newells Old Boys face Union Santa Fe in the Liga Profesional Argentina with the home side holding a 46% probability of winning, while a draw stands at 30% and Union Santa Fe at 25%. The expected goals for Newells Old Boys is 1.52 compared to Union Santa Fe's 0.72, indicating a potential advantage for the hosts. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, with a 15% likelihood.
In terms of recent form, Newells Old Boys have recorded two wins and three draws in their last five matches, while Union Santa Fe has struggled with one win and four losses. The head-to-head record shows a balanced competition, with Newells Old Boys winning once, Union Santa Fe also winning once, and one match ending in a draw. The confidence grade for this matchup is rated as C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Newells Old Boys and Union Santa Fe expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.24
Newells Old Boys and Union Santa Fe attack and defence ratings
Newells Old Boys
Union Santa Fe
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
Newells Old Boys vs Union Santa Fe markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Newells Old Boys | 45.9% | 2.18 | +3.1% | 2.22 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 61.1% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 58.6% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.5% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.7% | 2.24 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Newells Old Boys | 45.9% |
| Draw | 29.6% | |
| Union Santa Fe | 24.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 61.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41.4% |
| No | 58.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Newells Old Boys win | 29.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.6% | |
| Loss | 44.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 15.0% |
| 1-1 | 12.8% | |
| 2-0 | 12.3% |
Newells Old Boys vs Union Santa Fe stats
Newells Old Boys and Union Santa Fe recent form
| Newells Old Boys |
DWLDWD |
| Union Santa Fe |
DLLLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Newells Old Boys and Union Santa Fe season so far
Newells Old Boys record
- They have won 8 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Union Santa Fe record
- They have won 10 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Newells Old Boys vs Union Santa Fe head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-17 | Union Santa Fe | Newells Old Boys | Liga Profesional Argentina | 2-3 |
| 2025-11-01 | Newells Old Boys | Union Santa Fe | Liga Profesional Argentina | 0-1 |
| 2025-04-19 | Union Santa Fe | Newells Old Boys | Liga Profesional Argentina | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Newells Old Boys vs Union Santa Fe odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 42.8%, draw 30.0%, away 27.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.22 | 3.19 | 3.47 |
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 3.10 | 3.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.20 | 3.10 | 3.40 |
| Betano | 2.22 | 3.15 | 3.55 |
| Betfair | 2.15 | 3.25 | 3.30 |
| Dafabet | 2.14 | 3.10 | 3.50 |
| Marathonbet | 2.17 | 3.12 | 3.40 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 3.00 | 3.30 |