Union Santa Fe
vs
Estudiantes L.P.
Garuda Lions Prediction: Estudiantes L.P.
0 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this, so it is not a value bet.
Union Santa Fe vs Estudiantes L.P. overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Union Santa Fe vs Estudiantes L.P.
| Probability | Union Santa Fe | Draw | Estudiantes L.P. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29.6% | 29.3% | 41.1% |
| Market | 35.8% | 30.2% | 34.0% |
| Final | 34.3% | 29.9% | 35.8% |
| Edge | -1.6% | -0.2% | +1.8% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.83, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.3% per unit staked (our 35.8% × 2.83 − 1).
Union Santa Fe vs Estudiantes L.P. match preview
Union Santa Fe faces Estudiantes L.P. in an upcoming Liga Profesional Argentina match, with both teams showing mixed recent form. Union Santa Fe's last five matches include one win and four losses, while Estudiantes L.P. has recorded two draws and one win in their last five games. According to our model, the probabilities for the match outcome are 34% for Union Santa Fe to win, 30% for a draw, and 36% for Estudiantes L.P. to secure the victory.
The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1, with expected goals of 1.13 for Union Santa Fe and 1.37 for Estudiantes L.P. Additionally, there is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored, and both teams are given a 52% probability of scoring. In their last three encounters, Estudiantes L.P. has won twice, while Union Santa Fe has one victory.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Union Santa Fe and Estudiantes L.P. expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.51
Union Santa Fe and Estudiantes L.P. attack and defence ratings
Union Santa Fe
Estudiantes L.P.
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 14 fixtures
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- Aldosivi vs Belgrano Cordoba — team news & stats
- Independiente v Boca Juniors — match page
- River Plate vs Racing Club — team news & stats
- Central Cordoba de Santiago v Velez Sarsfield — match page
- Barracas Central vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
- Instituto Cordoba vs Deportivo Riestra
- Argentinos JRS vs Independ. Rivadavia
Before and after this match
Union Santa Fe vs Estudiantes L.P. markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Estudiantes L.P. | 35.8% | 2.79 | +1.8% | 2.83 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.2% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.9% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.1% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.9% | 1.70 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Union Santa Fe | 34.3% |
| Draw | 29.9% | |
| Estudiantes L.P. | 35.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.9% |
| No | 48.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 65.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Estudiantes L.P. win | 19.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.2% | |
| Loss | 58.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.0% |
| 0-1 | 9.9% | |
| 0-0 | 9.4% |
Union Santa Fe vs Estudiantes L.P. stats
Union Santa Fe and Estudiantes L.P. recent form
| Union Santa Fe |
DLLLLW |
| Estudiantes L.P. |
DLDDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Union Santa Fe and Estudiantes L.P. season so far
Union Santa Fe record
- They have won 10 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Estudiantes L.P. record
- They have won 13 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
Union Santa Fe vs Estudiantes L.P. head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Estudiantes L.P. | Union Santa Fe | Liga Profesional Argentina | 2-1 |
| 2025-07-15 | Union Santa Fe | Estudiantes L.P. | Liga Profesional Argentina | 1-0 |
| 2025-01-25 | Estudiantes L.P. | Union Santa Fe | Liga Profesional Argentina | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Union Santa Fe vs Estudiantes L.P. odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 35.8%, draw 30.2%, away 34.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.64 | 3.12 | 2.82 |
| Bet365 | 2.70 | 3.10 | 2.70 |
| BetVictor | 2.60 | 3.13 | 2.70 |
| Betano | 2.72 | 3.15 | 2.75 |
| Betfair | 2.55 | 3.10 | 2.70 |
| Dafabet | 2.60 | 3.05 | 2.75 |
| Marathonbet | 2.59 | 3.06 | 2.76 |
| Pinnacle | 2.66 | 3.13 | 2.83 |
| SBO | 2.49 | 2.87 | 2.49 |
| William Hill | 2.62 | 2.90 | 2.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .