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CONMEBOL Libertadores · Full time ·Semi-finals

Flamengo vs Estudiantes L.P.

0 – 0 Full time

35′Baltasar Gallego Rodriguez
38′Joaquín CorreaTiago Palacios
49′Leandro Gonzalez Pirez
50′Baltasar Gallego Rodriguez
54′Santiago Núñez
64′Lucas Piovi
64′Jorge CarrascalGiorgian de Arrascaeta
65′Alexander Medina
77′Marcos RojoTiago Tomas Palacios
77′Joaquín Tobio BurgosEdwuin Cetre
77′Guido CarrilloAdolfo Gaich
82′Erick PulgarBruno Henrique
82′Samuel LinoGonzalo Plata
82′Alex SandroAyrton Lucas
88′PedroJoaquín Freitas
90′Alexis CastroJosé Sosa
91′Giorgian de Arrascaeta
92′José Sosa
97′Eros Nazareno Mancuso
97′Léo Pereira
98′Tiago Palacios

Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de JaneiroReferee: Gustavo Tejera

Flamengo 68%
Draw 21%
Estudiantes L.P. 10%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

13 Shots 8
3 Shots on target 3
76 Possession % 24
6 Corners 5
10 Fouls 14
3 Saves 3
572 Accurate passes 134

Flamengo vs Estudiantes L.P. overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Flamengo vs Estudiantes L.P.

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFlamengoDrawEstudiantes L.P.
Model61.9%25.6%12.4%
Market70.6%20.0%9.4%
Final68.5%21.4%10.2%
Edge-2.2%+1.4%+0.8%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Flamengo

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.68 vs 0.63.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Flamengo ↓ / Estudiantes L. → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 11% 1 16% 12% 2 14% 9% 3 8% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 89%
2+ goals 68%
3+ goals 41%
No goals 11%

Flamengo and Estudiantes L.P. expected goals

Flamengo 1.68
Estudiantes L.P. 0.63

Total expected goals: 2.31

Flamengo and Estudiantes L.P. attack and defence ratings

Flamengo

Attack 1.40 +40%
Defence 0.64 -36%

Estudiantes L.P.

Attack 1.08 +8%
Defence 0.89 -11%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Flamengo vs Estudiantes L.P.: result vs prediction

Flamengo 0 – 0 Estudiantes L.P.

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Semi-finals fixtures

CONMEBOL Libertadores

Before and after this match

Flamengo vs Estudiantes L.P. markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Flamengo 68.5% 1.46 -2.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 59.4% 1.68 — —
Both teams to score No 61.0% 1.64 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 89.8% 1.11 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 38.1% 2.63 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Flamengo68.5%
Draw21.4%
Estudiantes L.P.10.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.540.6%
Under 2.559.4%
Both teams to scoreYes39.0%
No61.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)89.8%
12 (either side)78.6%
X2 (draw or away)31.5%
Handicap -1Flamengo win35.8%
Push (exactly one goal)26.2%
Loss38.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-015.7%
2-014.1%
1-111.5%

Flamengo vs Estudiantes L.P. stats

Flamengo and Estudiantes L.P. recent form

newest first
Flamengo WDWDWD
Estudiantes L.P. LDDWLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Flamengo and Estudiantes L.P. going into this match

league record before kick-off

Flamengo record

  • They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.

Estudiantes L.P. record

  • They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
  • 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Flamengo vs Estudiantes L.P. head-to-head

Last 5 meetings

2Flamengo wins 2Draws 1Estudiantes L.P. wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-10-16Estudiantes L.P.FlamengoCONMEBOL Libertadores0-0
2026-05-21FlamengoEstudiantes L.P.CONMEBOL Libertadores1-0
2026-04-30Estudiantes L.P.FlamengoCONMEBOL Libertadores1-1
2025-09-26Estudiantes L.P.FlamengoCONMEBOL Libertadores1-0
2025-09-19FlamengoEstudiantes L.P.CONMEBOL Libertadores2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Flamengo vs Estudiantes L.P. odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 70.6%, draw 20.0%, away 9.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.34 4.92 10.70
Bet365 1.36 4.50 9.50
BetVictor 1.33 4.75 10.50
Betano 1.39 4.80 10.50
Betfair 1.33 4.50 9.50
Dafabet 1.36 4.90 10.00
Marathonbet 1.31 4.70 10.25
Pinnacle 1.34 4.81 10.07
SBO 1.33 3.81 6.86
William Hill 1.33 4.50 9.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.33 ▼ -0.06
X 4.72 ▲ +0.33
2 10.04 ▲ +1.54

12 snapshots recorded, from .