Flamengo
vs
Estudiantes L.P.
Garuda Lions Prediction: Flamengo
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
Flamengo vs Estudiantes L.P. overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Flamengo vs Estudiantes L.P.
| Probability | Flamengo | Draw | Estudiantes L.P. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.4% | 27.4% | 18.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 54.4% | 27.4% | 18.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Flamengo
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.59 vs 0.83.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Flamengo vs Estudiantes L.P. match preview
Flamengo enters this CONMEBOL Libertadores match against Estudiantes L.P. with a strong probability of winning at 58%, while Estudiantes L.P. has a 15% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Flamengo, occurring with a 15% probability. Flamengo's expected goals stand at 1.62, significantly higher than Estudiantes L.P.'s 0.70, indicating a potential advantage in offensive performance.
Recent form shows Flamengo on a strong run with four consecutive wins, while Estudiantes L.P. has had mixed results, winning three of their last six matches. In their last four encounters, Flamengo has secured two wins, with Estudiantes L.P. winning once and one match ending in a draw. The probabilities suggest a competitive match, but Flamengo's recent form and head-to-head record may give them the edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Flamengo and Estudiantes L.P. expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.42
Flamengo and Estudiantes L.P. attack and defence ratings
Flamengo
Estudiantes L.P.
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Semi-finals fixtures
Before and after this match
Flamengo vs Estudiantes L.P. markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Flamengo | 54.4% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.4% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.0% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.8% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.6% | 2.19 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Flamengo | 54.4% |
| Draw | 27.4% | |
| Estudiantes L.P. | 18.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 56.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.0% |
| No | 54.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Flamengo win | 29.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.6% | |
| Loss | 45.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 13.0% |
| 1-1 | 12.9% | |
| 2-0 | 11.3% |
Flamengo vs Estudiantes L.P. stats
Flamengo and Estudiantes L.P. recent form
| Flamengo |
DWDWWW |
| Estudiantes L.P. |
WLLWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Flamengo and Estudiantes L.P. season so far
Flamengo record
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
Estudiantes L.P. record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Flamengo vs Estudiantes L.P. head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-21 | Flamengo | Estudiantes L.P. | CONMEBOL Libertadores | 1-0 |
| 2026-04-30 | Estudiantes L.P. | Flamengo | CONMEBOL Libertadores | 1-1 |
| 2025-09-26 | Estudiantes L.P. | Flamengo | CONMEBOL Libertadores | 1-0 |
| 2025-09-19 | Flamengo | Estudiantes L.P. | CONMEBOL Libertadores | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.