Estudiantes L.P.
vs
San Lorenzo
Garuda Lions Prediction: Estudiantes L.P.
1 – 0 Predicted score · 19% model probability
Estudiantes L.P. vs San Lorenzo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Estudiantes L.P. vs San Lorenzo
| Probability | Estudiantes L.P. | Draw | San Lorenzo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60.4% | 27.9% | 11.8% |
| Market | 43.7% | 31.7% | 24.6% |
| Final | 47.9% | 30.8% | 21.4% |
| Edge | +16.7% | -3.9% | -12.8% |
Why Estudiantes L.P.
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.50 vs 0.53.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Estudiantes L.P. below the model: +16.7 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.19, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Estudiantes L.P. vs San Lorenzo match preview
Estudiantes L.P. faces San Lorenzo in the Liga Profesional Argentina with a projected probability of 48% for a home win, while a draw stands at 31% and an away victory for San Lorenzo at 21%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, with an expected goals tally of 1.50 for Estudiantes L.P. and 0.53 for San Lorenzo.
In terms of recent form, Estudiantes L.P. has recorded two wins in their last six matches, while San Lorenzo has also struggled, with two wins in their last six. The head-to-head record shows San Lorenzo with one win against Estudiantes L.P. in their last encounter. Both teams have a 33% chance of scoring in this match, indicating a potentially close contest.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Estudiantes L.P. and San Lorenzo expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.03
Estudiantes L.P. and San Lorenzo attack and defence ratings
Estudiantes L.P.
San Lorenzo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 13 fixtures
- Independ. Rivadavia vs Tigre — team news & stats
- Platense vs Lanus — team news & stats
- Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia M. — team news & stats
- Atletico Tucuman vs Rosario Central
- Racing Club v Independiente — match page
- Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto vs Aldosivi
- Belgrano Cordoba vs River Plate
- Newells Old Boys v Central Cordoba de Santiago — match page
Before and after this match
Estudiantes L.P. vs San Lorenzo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Estudiantes L.P. | 47.9% | 2.09 | +16.7% | 2.19 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 66.9% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 67.2% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.6% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 39.6% | 2.52 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Estudiantes L.P. | 47.9% |
| Draw | 30.8% | |
| San Lorenzo | 21.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 66.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 32.8% |
| No | 67.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Estudiantes L.P. win | 32.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27.6% | |
| Loss | 39.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 18.7% |
| 2-0 | 14.9% | |
| 0-0 | 14.2% |
Estudiantes L.P. vs San Lorenzo stats
Estudiantes L.P. and San Lorenzo recent form
| Estudiantes L.P. |
DWLLWW |
| San Lorenzo |
WLLDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Estudiantes L.P. and San Lorenzo season so far
Estudiantes L.P. record
- They have won 13 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
San Lorenzo record
- They have won 8 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 28 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Estudiantes L.P. vs San Lorenzo head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | San Lorenzo | Estudiantes L.P. | Liga Profesional Argentina | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Estudiantes L.P. vs San Lorenzo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 43.7%, draw 31.7%, away 24.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.13 | 2.99 | 4.00 |
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 2.90 | 3.80 |
| BetVictor | 2.15 | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| Betano | 2.18 | 2.95 | 3.95 |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| Dafabet | 2.14 | 2.95 | 3.70 |
| Marathonbet | 2.09 | 2.93 | 3.92 |
| Pinnacle | 2.19 | 2.93 | 3.96 |
| SBO | 2.14 | 2.72 | 3.18 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 2.88 | 3.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .