Palmeiras
vs
Fluminense
Garuda Lions Prediction: Palmeiras
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
Palmeiras vs Fluminense overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Palmeiras vs Fluminense
| Probability | Palmeiras | Draw | Fluminense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.4% | 29.2% | 21.4% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 49.4% | 29.2% | 21.4% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Palmeiras
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.45 vs 0.87.
Palmeiras vs Fluminense match preview
Palmeiras and Fluminense are set to clash in the CONMEBOL Libertadores on October 20, 2026. The model gives Palmeiras a 57% chance of winning, while Fluminense stands at 17%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Palmeiras, with a probability of 13%. The expected goals for Palmeiras is 1.69, compared to Fluminense's 0.81, indicating a stronger offensive performance from Palmeiras.
In terms of recent form, Palmeiras has recorded two wins, two draws, and a loss in their last six matches, while Fluminense has achieved four wins, one loss, and a draw in the same period. The head-to-head record over the last four encounters shows Palmeiras with 2 wins, Fluminense with 1 win, and 1 draw, suggesting a competitive matchup between the two teams.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Palmeiras and Fluminense expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.32
Palmeiras and Fluminense attack and defence ratings
Palmeiras
Fluminense
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Semi-finals fixtures
Before and after this match
Palmeiras vs Fluminense markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Palmeiras | 49.4% | 2.02 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 59.0% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.2% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.6% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.6% | 1.98 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Palmeiras | 49.4% |
| Draw | 29.2% | |
| Fluminense | 21.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 59.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.8% |
| No | 54.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Palmeiras win | 25.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.1% | |
| Loss | 50.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.6% |
| 1-0 | 13.0% | |
| 0-0 | 11.0% |
Palmeiras vs Fluminense stats
Palmeiras and Fluminense recent form
| Palmeiras |
WDWWWD |
| Fluminense |
WWWLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Palmeiras and Fluminense season so far
Palmeiras record
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fluminense record
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
Palmeiras vs Fluminense head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Fluminense | Palmeiras | Brazil Serie A | 3-2 |
| 2026-02-26 | Palmeiras | Fluminense | Brazil Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2025-11-23 | Palmeiras | Fluminense | Brazil Serie A | 0-0 |
| 2025-07-23 | Fluminense | Palmeiras | Brazil Serie A | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.