CONMEBOL Libertadores
·
Full time
·Semi-finals
Palmeiras
vs
Fluminense
0 – 1 Full time
| 31′ | Julian MillanIgnácio da Silva Oliveira | ||
| 45′ | Jefferson David Savarino QuinteroKevin Serna | ||
| 49′ | Alexander Barboza | ||
| 56′ | Hércules Pereira do Nascimento | ||
| 62′ | José Manuel LópezRamon Sosa | ||
| 76′ | Jhon Arias | ||
| 79′ | Claudio Rodrigues GomesSamuel Xavier Brito | ||
| 79′ | Agustín CanobbioWesley Natã de Freitas Prado | ||
| 82′ | Hércules Pereira do Nascimento | ||
| 83′ | Andreas PereiraMaurício Magalhães Prado | ||
| 87′ | Jhon AriasPaulo Henrique Sampaio Filho | ||
| 87′ | Agustin GiayKhellven Douglas Silva Oliveira | ||
| 87′ | Paulo Henrique Chagas de LimaLuciano Acosta | ||
| 91′ | Maurício Magalhães Prado | ||
| 92′ | Thiago Silva | ||
| 93′ | Gustavo Gómez | ||
| 94′ | Hércules Pereira do Nascimento | ||
| 95′ | Ramon Sosa | ||
| 96′ | Guilherme Arana | ||
| 96′ | Joaquín Piquerez | ||
| 98′ | Marlon Freitas |
Palmeiras
57%
Draw
26%
Fluminense
17%
Match stats
| 12 | Shots | 4 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 54 | Possession % | 46 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Offsides | 0 |
| 1 | Saves | 1 |
| 482 | Accurate passes | 447 |
Palmeiras vs Fluminense overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Palmeiras vs Fluminense
| Probability | Palmeiras | Draw | Fluminense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 68.0% | 20.7% | 11.3% |
| Market | 53.9% | 27.3% | 18.8% |
| Final | 57.4% | 25.7% | 16.9% |
| Edge | +3.5% | -1.7% | -1.9% |
Why Palmeiras
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.14 vs 0.77.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Palmeiras below our published probability: +3.5 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
94%
2+ goals
80%
3+ goals
56%
No goals
6%
Palmeiras and Fluminense expected goals
Palmeiras
2.14
Fluminense
0.77
Total expected goals: 2.90
Palmeiras and Fluminense attack and defence ratings
Palmeiras
Attack
1.39 +39%
Defence
0.65 -35%
Fluminense
Attack
1.30 +30%
Defence
1.14 +14%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Palmeiras vs Fluminense: result vs prediction
Palmeiras 0 – 1 Fluminense
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Semi-finals fixtures
Before and after this match
Palmeiras vs Fluminense markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Palmeiras | 57.4% | 1.74 | +3.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.5% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.1% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Palmeiras win | 44.6% | 2.24 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Palmeiras | 57.4% |
| Draw | 25.7% | |
| Fluminense | 16.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.2% |
| No | 51.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 42.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Palmeiras win | 44.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.4% | |
| Loss | 32.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 12.5% |
| 1-0 | 10.8% | |
| 1-1 | 9.9% |
Palmeiras vs Fluminense stats
Palmeiras and Fluminense recent form
| Palmeiras |
WWWWDL |
| Fluminense |
LLLWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Palmeiras and Fluminense going into this match
Palmeiras record
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fluminense record
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
Palmeiras vs Fluminense head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
4Palmeiras wins
2Draws
4Fluminense wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | Fluminense | Palmeiras | CONMEBOL Libertadores | 1-2 |
| 2026-08-15 | Fluminense | Palmeiras | Brazil Serie A | 3-2 |
| 2026-02-26 | Palmeiras | Fluminense | Brazil Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2025-11-23 | Palmeiras | Fluminense | Brazil Serie A | 0-0 |
| 2025-07-23 | Fluminense | Palmeiras | Brazil Serie A | 1-2 |
| 2024-12-08 | Palmeiras | Fluminense | Serie A | 0-1 |
| 2024-07-25 | Fluminense | Palmeiras | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2023-12-03 | Palmeiras | Fluminense | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2023-08-06 | Fluminense | Palmeiras | Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2022-08-27 | Fluminense | Palmeiras | Serie A | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Palmeiras vs Fluminense odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 53.9%, draw 27.3%, away 18.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.78 | 3.48 | 5.21 |
| Bet365 | 1.83 | 3.50 | 4.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.70 | 3.60 | 5.25 |
| Betano | 1.78 | 3.60 | 5.50 |
| Betfair | 1.70 | 3.30 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.01 | 3.45 | 4.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.72 | 3.38 | 5.05 |
| Pinnacle | 1.71 | 3.46 | 5.69 |
| SBO | 1.72 | 3.29 | 4.47 |
| William Hill | 1.80 | 3.10 | 4.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.75 ▼ -0.16
X
3.46 ▼ -0.04
2
5.03 ▲ +1.03
14 snapshots recorded, from .