Atletico Paranaense
vs
Palmeiras
Garuda Lions Prediction: Palmeiras
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras
| Probability | Atletico Paranaense | Draw | Palmeiras |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36.2% | 26.5% | 37.3% |
| Market | 33.2% | 27.8% | 39.0% |
| Final | 34.0% | 27.5% | 38.6% |
| Edge | +3.0% | -1.3% | -1.6% |
Why Palmeiras
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.52, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras match preview
Atletico Paranaense faces Palmeiras in a Brazil Serie A clash, with the probabilities indicating a competitive matchup. Atletico Paranaense has a 33% chance of winning, while Palmeiras holds a 39% likelihood. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2 in favor of Palmeiras, with expected goals of 1.29 for Atletico Paranaense and 1.52 for Palmeiras.
Recent form shows Atletico Paranaense with mixed results, recording one win, three draws, and one loss in their last six matches. In contrast, Palmeiras has been in strong form, winning all of their last six games. Additionally, there is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% probability that both teams will score in this encounter.
Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras team news
Atletico Paranaense news
- C. Teran — inactive
- Dantas — inactive
- G. Benavidez — muscle injury
- K. A. Calderon Vargas — inactive
Palmeiras news
- A. Giay — yellow cards
- G. Gomez — yellow cards
- Jefte — knee injury
- Vitor Roque — inactive
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.01
Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras attack and defence ratings
Atletico Paranaense
Palmeiras
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
Before and after this match
Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Palmeiras | 38.6% | 2.59 | -1.6% | 2.52 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.0% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.7% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.5% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.7% | 1.60 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Paranaense | 34.0% |
| Draw | 27.5% | |
| Palmeiras | 38.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.7% |
| No | 38.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 61.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Palmeiras win | 18.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.7% | |
| Loss | 62.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.3% |
| 1-2 | 8.5% | |
| 2-1 | 8.3% |
Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras stats
Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras recent form
| Atletico Paranaense |
WDWDLD |
| Palmeiras |
WWWDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras season so far
Atletico Paranaense record
- They have won 15 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
Palmeiras record
- They have won 18 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Palmeiras | Atletico Paranaense | Brazil Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2024-09-01 | Atletico Paranaense | Palmeiras | Serie A | 0-2 |
| 2024-05-12 | Palmeiras | Atletico Paranaense | Serie A | 0-2 |
| 2023-11-05 | Palmeiras | Atletico Paranaense | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2023-07-02 | Atletico Paranaense | Palmeiras | Serie A | 2-2 |
| 2022-10-26 | Atletico Paranaense | Palmeiras | Serie A | 1-3 |
| 2022-09-07 | Palmeiras | Atletico Paranaense | CONMEBOL Libertadores | 2-2 |
| 2022-08-31 | Atletico Paranaense | Palmeiras | CONMEBOL Libertadores | 1-0 |
| 2022-07-03 | Palmeiras | Atletico Paranaense | Serie A | 0-2 |
| 2022-03-03 | Palmeiras | Atletico Paranaense | CONMEBOL Recopa | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 33.1%, draw 28.2%, away 38.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.90 | 3.46 | 2.45 |
| Bet365 | 2.88 | 3.40 | 2.45 |
| BetVictor | 2.80 | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| Betano | 2.87 | 3.30 | 2.52 |
| Dafabet | 2.90 | 3.35 | 2.48 |
| Marathonbet | 2.81 | 3.35 | 2.38 |
| Pinnacle | 2.90 | 3.50 | 2.49 |
| William Hill | 2.80 | 3.20 | 2.38 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .