Central Cordoba de Santiago
vs
Velez Sarsfield
Garuda Lions Prediction: Velez Sarsfield
0 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Velez Sarsfield is the favourite, not a value bet.
Central Cordoba de Santiago vs Velez Sarsfield overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Central Cordoba de Santiago vs Velez Sarsfield
| Probability | Central Cordoba de Santiago | Draw | Velez Sarsfield |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.7% | 29.6% | 41.7% |
| Market | 30.5% | 29.7% | 39.8% |
| Final | 30.0% | 29.7% | 40.3% |
| Edge | -0.4% | -0.0% | +0.5% |
Why Velez Sarsfield
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.40, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.3% per unit staked (our 40.3% × 2.40 − 1).
Central Cordoba de Santiago vs Velez Sarsfield match preview
Central Cordoba de Santiago faces Velez Sarsfield in the Liga Profesional Argentina with a probability of 28% for a home win, 30% for a draw, and 42% for an away victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1, with expected goals of 1.16 for Central Cordoba and 1.34 for Velez Sarsfield. Recent form shows Central Cordoba struggling with three draws and two losses in their last six matches, while Velez Sarsfield has performed better, recording three wins, two draws, and one loss in the same period.
Both teams have a 52% chance of scoring, and there is a 46% likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match. In their last encounter, Velez Sarsfield secured a win against Central Cordoba, who have yet to claim a victory in this matchup. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Central Cordoba de Santiago and Velez Sarsfield expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.45
Central Cordoba de Santiago and Velez Sarsfield attack and defence ratings
Central Cordoba de Santiago
Velez Sarsfield
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 14 fixtures
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- Rosario Central vs Huracan
- Aldosivi vs Belgrano Cordoba — team news & stats
- Independiente v Boca Juniors — match page
- River Plate vs Racing Club — team news & stats
- Barracas Central vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
- Union Santa Fe v Estudiantes L.P. — match page
- Instituto Cordoba vs Deportivo Riestra
Before and after this match
Central Cordoba de Santiago vs Velez Sarsfield markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Velez Sarsfield | 40.3% | 2.48 | +0.5% | 2.40 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.7% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.6% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.3% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.3% | 1.71 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Central Cordoba de Santiago | 30.0% |
| Draw | 29.7% | |
| Velez Sarsfield | 40.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.6% |
| No | 49.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 59.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 70.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Velez Sarsfield win | 20.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.6% | |
| Loss | 58.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.1% |
| 0-1 | 10.5% | |
| 0-0 | 9.9% |
Central Cordoba de Santiago vs Velez Sarsfield stats
Central Cordoba de Santiago and Velez Sarsfield recent form
| Central Cordoba de Santiago |
LDDDLL |
| Velez Sarsfield |
WLDWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Central Cordoba de Santiago and Velez Sarsfield season so far
Central Cordoba de Santiago record
- They have won 6 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 14 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Velez Sarsfield record
- They have won 12 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Central Cordoba de Santiago vs Velez Sarsfield head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-14 | Velez Sarsfield | Central Cordoba de Santiago | Liga Profesional Argentina | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Central Cordoba de Santiago vs Velez Sarsfield odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 30.5%, draw 29.7%, away 39.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.10 | 3.19 | 2.40 |
| Bet365 | 3.25 | 3.20 | 2.30 |
| BetVictor | 3.10 | 3.13 | 2.30 |
| Betano | 3.15 | 3.15 | 2.40 |
| Betfair | 2.90 | 3.30 | 2.38 |
| Dafabet | 3.05 | 3.10 | 2.33 |
| Marathonbet | 3.04 | 3.12 | 2.35 |
| Pinnacle | 3.07 | 3.28 | 2.39 |
| SBO | 2.88 | 2.90 | 2.18 |
| William Hill | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .