Independ. Rivadavia
vs
Banfield
Garuda Lions Prediction: Independ. Rivadavia
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Independ. Rivadavia is the favourite, not a value bet.
Independ. Rivadavia vs Banfield overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Independ. Rivadavia vs Banfield
| Probability | Independ. Rivadavia | Draw | Banfield |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.3% | 26.3% | 32.4% |
| Market | 61.7% | 22.8% | 15.5% |
| Final | 56.6% | 23.7% | 19.7% |
| Edge | -5.1% | +0.9% | +4.2% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.55, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -12.2% per unit staked (our 56.6% × 1.55 − 1).
Independ. Rivadavia vs Banfield match preview
Independ. Rivadavia enters this match with a probability of 60% to win against Banfield, who has an 18% chance of victory. The expected goals for Independ. Rivadavia stand at 1.78, while Banfield is projected to score 1.48. Recent form shows Independ. Rivadavia with two wins, two draws, and a loss in their last five matches, while Banfield has drawn three and lost two in the same period.
The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1 in favor of Independ. Rivadavia, with a 9% likelihood. Additionally, there is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored, and both teams are expected to score with a probability of 65%. In their last three encounters, Independ. Rivadavia has not secured a win, recording two draws and one loss against Banfield.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Independ. Rivadavia and Banfield expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.02
Independ. Rivadavia and Banfield attack and defence ratings
Independ. Rivadavia
Banfield
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
Independ. Rivadavia vs Banfield markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Independ. Rivadavia | 56.6% | 1.77 | -5.1% | 1.55 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.1% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.5% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.3% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.7% | 1.70 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Independ. Rivadavia | 56.6% |
| Draw | 23.7% | |
| Banfield | 19.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.5% |
| No | 38.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 43.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Independ. Rivadavia win | 21.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.8% | |
| Loss | 58.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.2% |
| 2-1 | 8.9% | |
| 1-2 | 7.8% |
Independ. Rivadavia vs Banfield stats
Independ. Rivadavia and Banfield recent form
| Independ. Rivadavia |
LDLDWD |
| Banfield |
DLWDDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Independ. Rivadavia and Banfield season so far
Independ. Rivadavia record
- They have won 15 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Banfield record
- They have won 8 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Independ. Rivadavia vs Banfield head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-20 | Banfield | Independ. Rivadavia | Liga Profesional Argentina | 0-0 |
| 2025-10-18 | Independ. Rivadavia | Banfield | Liga Profesional Argentina | 1-2 |
| 2025-04-11 | Banfield | Independ. Rivadavia | Liga Profesional Argentina | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Independ. Rivadavia vs Banfield odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 61.7%, draw 22.8%, away 15.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.53 | 4.14 | 6.33 |
| Bet365 | 1.53 | 3.90 | 6.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.50 | 4.10 | 6.00 |
| Betano | 1.55 | 4.10 | 6.10 |
| Betfair | 1.50 | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.51 | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.50 | 4.05 | 6.20 |
| Pinnacle | 1.53 | 4.20 | 6.01 |
| SBO | 1.45 | 3.65 | 5.42 |
| William Hill | 1.50 | 3.80 | 6.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .