Racing Club
vs
Independiente
Garuda Lions Prediction: Racing Club
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Racing Club vs Independiente overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Racing Club vs Independiente
| Probability | Racing Club | Draw | Independiente |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.9% | 26.2% | 24.9% |
| Market | 44.8% | 30.0% | 25.3% |
| Final | 45.8% | 29.0% | 25.2% |
| Edge | +4.2% | -3.8% | -0.4% |
Why Racing Club
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.71 vs 1.17.
- The market prices Racing Club below the model: +4.2 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.15, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Racing Club vs Independiente match preview
Racing Club faces Independiente in the Liga Profesional Argentina on October 18, 2026. According to our model, Racing Club has a 46% chance of winning, while Independiente stands at 25%, with a 29% probability for a draw. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Racing Club, with an expected goals tally of 1.71 for Racing Club and 1.17 for Independiente.
In terms of recent form, Racing Club has recorded two wins and four losses in their last six matches, while Independiente has drawn twice and won three times in the same period. The head-to-head record shows Racing Club with no wins, two draws, and one win for Independiente in their last three encounters. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is 55%, and both teams scoring is projected at 57%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Racing Club and Independiente expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.87
Racing Club and Independiente attack and defence ratings
Racing Club
Independiente
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 13 fixtures
- Banfield vs Argentinos JRS
- Independ. Rivadavia vs Tigre — team news & stats
- Platense vs Lanus — team news & stats
- Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia M. — team news & stats
- Atletico Tucuman vs Rosario Central
- Estudiantes L.P. v San Lorenzo — match page
- Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto vs Aldosivi
- Belgrano Cordoba vs River Plate
Before and after this match
Racing Club vs Independiente markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Racing Club | 45.8% | 2.18 | +4.2% | 2.15 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.8% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.5% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.8% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.1% | 1.96 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Racing Club | 45.8% |
| Draw | 29.0% | |
| Independiente | 25.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.5% |
| No | 42.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Racing Club win | 27.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.9% | |
| Loss | 51.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.4% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | |
| 1-0 | 8.5% |
Racing Club vs Independiente stats
Racing Club and Independiente recent form
| Racing Club |
LWLWLL |
| Independiente |
DLWDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Racing Club and Independiente season so far
Racing Club record
- They have won 9 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Independiente record
- They have won 11 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 28 matches.
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Racing Club vs Independiente head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Independiente | Racing Club | Liga Profesional Argentina | 1-0 |
| 2025-09-28 | Racing Club | Independiente | Liga Profesional Argentina | 0-0 |
| 2025-03-16 | Independiente | Racing Club | Liga Profesional Argentina | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Racing Club vs Independiente odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.8%, draw 30.0%, away 25.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.08 | 3.22 | 3.80 |
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 3.10 | 3.80 |
| BetVictor | 2.10 | 3.20 | 3.70 |
| Betano | 2.15 | 3.10 | 3.85 |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 3.25 | 3.50 |
| Dafabet | 2.09 | 3.10 | 3.60 |
| Marathonbet | 2.04 | 3.16 | 3.72 |
| Pinnacle | 2.12 | 3.22 | 3.73 |
| SBO | 2.09 | 2.82 | 3.13 |
| William Hill | 2.05 | 3.00 | 3.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
16 snapshots recorded, from .