Rosario Central
vs
Independ. Rivadavia
Garuda Lions Prediction: Rosario Central
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
Rosario Central vs Independ. Rivadavia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Rosario Central vs Independ. Rivadavia
| Probability | Rosario Central | Draw | Independ. Rivadavia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.6% | 32.5% | 30.0% |
| Market | 47.6% | 29.1% | 23.4% |
| Final | 45.1% | 29.9% | 25.0% |
| Edge | -10.0% | +3.4% | +6.6% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.02, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Rosario Central vs Independ. Rivadavia match preview
Rosario Central faces Independ. Rivadavia in the Liga Profesional Argentina on October 11, 2026. Rosario Central has a 45% probability of winning, while Independ. Rivadavia stands at 25%, and a draw is estimated at 30%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Rosario Central, with a 13% chance. Expected goals for Rosario Central are 1.20, compared to Independ. Rivadavia's 0.94, indicating a slight edge for the home side.
In terms of recent form, Rosario Central has recorded two wins, one draw, and three losses, while Independ. Rivadavia has managed three wins and two draws in their last six matches. The head-to-head record shows Independ. Rivadavia with one win and Rosario Central yet to secure a victory in their last encounter. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting a blend of probabilities and market odds.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Rosario Central and Independ. Rivadavia expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.11
Rosario Central and Independ. Rivadavia attack and defence ratings
Rosario Central
Independ. Rivadavia
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 12 fixtures
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- Tigre v Banfield — match page
- River Plate vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto — team news & stats
- San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra
- Platense vs Argentinos JRS
- Racing Club vs Belgrano Cordoba
- Talleres Cordoba vs Independiente — team news & stats
- Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield
Before and after this match
Rosario Central vs Independ. Rivadavia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rosario Central | 45.1% | 2.22 | -10.0% | 2.02 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 64.7% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.4% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.0% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.5% | 1.60 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rosario Central | 45.1% |
| Draw | 29.9% | |
| Independ. Rivadavia | 25.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 64.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.6% |
| No | 56.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Rosario Central win | 16.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.4% | |
| Loss | 62.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.8% |
| 0-0 | 13.5% | |
| 1-0 | 12.4% |
Rosario Central vs Independ. Rivadavia stats
Rosario Central and Independ. Rivadavia recent form
| Rosario Central |
DWWDLD |
| Independ. Rivadavia |
DWDWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Rosario Central and Independ. Rivadavia season so far
Rosario Central record
- They have won 15 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Independ. Rivadavia record
- They have won 15 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Rosario Central vs Independ. Rivadavia head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-23 | Independ. Rivadavia | Rosario Central | Liga Profesional Argentina | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Rosario Central vs Independ. Rivadavia odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 47.6%, draw 29.1%, away 23.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.00 | 3.26 | 4.04 |
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 3.10 | 4.20 |
| BetVictor | 1.95 | 3.30 | 4.10 |
| Betano | 2.02 | 3.30 | 4.00 |
| Betfair | 1.95 | 3.30 | 4.20 |
| Dafabet | 1.99 | 3.15 | 3.85 |
| Marathonbet | 1.96 | 3.20 | 3.96 |
| Pinnacle | 2.00 | 3.26 | 4.08 |
| SBO | 1.94 | 2.92 | 3.45 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.10 | 3.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .