Palmeiras
vs
Bahia
1 – 0 Full time
| 7′ | José Manuel López | ||
| 61′ | Nicolas Acevedo | ||
| 64′ | Khellven Douglas Silva Oliveira | ||
| 65′ | erick pulgaAdemir | ||
| 65′ | Nicolas AcevedoCaio Alexandre | ||
| 65′ | Rodrigo NestorErick Luis Conrado Carvalho | ||
| 69′ | Vitor RoqueRamon Sosa | ||
| 69′ | José Manuel LópezJhon Arias | ||
| 82′ | Cristian OliveraMateo Naín Sanabria | ||
| 82′ | Alejo VelizWillian José | ||
| 87′ | Jean Lucas | ||
| 87′ | Andreas PereiraFelipe Anderson |
Match stats
| 25 | Shots | 10 |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 41 | Possession % | 59 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Offsides | 1 |
| 1 | Saves | 10 |
| 302 | Accurate passes | 485 |
Palmeiras vs Bahia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Palmeiras vs Bahia
| Probability | Palmeiras | Draw | Bahia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56.8% | 26.5% | 16.8% |
| Market | 58.7% | 23.1% | 18.2% |
| Final | 58.2% | 23.9% | 17.9% |
| Edge | -1.9% | +3.4% | -1.5% |
Why Palmeiras
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 0.80.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Palmeiras and Bahia expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.47
Palmeiras and Bahia attack and defence ratings
Palmeiras
Bahia
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Palmeiras vs Bahia: result vs prediction
Palmeiras 1 – 0 Bahia
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 29 fixtures
Before and after this match
Palmeiras vs Bahia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Palmeiras | 58.2% | 1.72 | -1.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.1% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.1% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.1% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.3% | 2.31 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Palmeiras | 58.2% |
| Draw | 23.9% | |
| Bahia | 17.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.9% |
| No | 54.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 41.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Palmeiras win | 31.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.8% | |
| Loss | 43.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 13.0% |
| 1-1 | 12.5% | |
| 2-0 | 11.7% |
Palmeiras vs Bahia stats
Palmeiras and Bahia recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Palmeiras and Bahia going into this match
Palmeiras record
- They have won 16 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bahia record
- They have won 12 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 10 penalties (70%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Palmeiras vs Bahia head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Bahia | Palmeiras | Brazil Serie A | 1-2 |
| 2025-09-28 | Bahia | Palmeiras | Brazil Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2025-04-27 | Palmeiras | Bahia | Brazil Serie A | 0-1 |
| 2024-11-20 | Bahia | Palmeiras | Serie A | 1-2 |
| 2024-07-07 | Palmeiras | Bahia | Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2023-10-28 | Palmeiras | Bahia | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2023-06-22 | Bahia | Palmeiras | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2021-10-13 | Bahia | Palmeiras | Serie A | 0-0 |
| 2021-06-27 | Palmeiras | Bahia | Serie A | 3-2 |
| 2020-12-12 | Palmeiras | Bahia | Serie A | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Palmeiras vs Bahia odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 58.7%, draw 23.1%, away 18.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.62 | 4.23 | 5.31 |
| Bet365 | 1.62 | 3.90 | 5.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.60 | 4.10 | 5.25 |
| Betano | 1.67 | 4.30 | 5.10 |
| Betfair | 1.62 | 3.90 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.57 | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.57 | 4.10 | 5.15 |
| Pinnacle | 1.62 | 4.25 | 5.21 |
| SBO | 1.47 | 3.77 | 4.84 |
| William Hill | 1.60 | 3.90 | 4.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
36 snapshots recorded, from .