Bahia
vs
Mirassol
Garuda Lions Prediction: Bahia
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Bahia vs Mirassol overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Bahia vs Mirassol
| Probability | Bahia | Draw | Mirassol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55.2% | 25.7% | 19.2% |
| Market | 55.2% | 24.2% | 20.6% |
| Final | 55.2% | 24.6% | 20.2% |
| Edge | -0.1% | +1.4% | -1.4% |
Why Bahia
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 0.95.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.75, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Bahia vs Mirassol match preview
Bahia enters this match with a 56% probability of winning, supported by their recent form of two losses followed by four consecutive victories. Their expected goals stand at 1.76, indicating a strong attacking potential against Mirassol, who have an expected goals figure of 0.95. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, which occurs with an 11% likelihood.
Mirassol's recent performance shows a mixed bag with two wins, two draws, and a loss in their last five matches. The probability of a draw is 24%, while Mirassol's chances of winning are at 20%. Additionally, there is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored, and both teams are expected to score with a 52% probability. The head-to-head record is balanced, with each team having one win and one draw in their last three encounters.
Bahia and Mirassol team news
Bahia news
- Leo Vieira — knee injury
- Nicolas Acevedo — yellow cards
Mirassol news
- Joao Victor — suspended
- Jose Aldo — muscle injury
- Negueba — knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Bahia and Mirassol expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.71
Bahia and Mirassol attack and defence ratings
Bahia
Mirassol
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
Before and after this match
Bahia vs Mirassol markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bahia | 55.2% | 1.81 | -0.1% | 1.75 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.9% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.0% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.8% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.8% | 2.23 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bahia | 55.2% |
| Draw | 24.6% | |
| Mirassol | 20.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.0% |
| No | 48.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 44.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Bahia win | 31.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.5% | |
| Loss | 44.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.3% |
| 1-0 | 10.6% | |
| 2-0 | 10.3% |
Bahia vs Mirassol stats
Bahia and Mirassol recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Bahia and Mirassol season so far
Bahia record
- They have won 12 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 10 penalties (70%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Mirassol record
- They have won 8 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 28 matches.
Bahia vs Mirassol head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Mirassol | Bahia | Brazil Serie A | 1-2 |
| 2025-08-31 | Mirassol | Bahia | Brazil Serie A | 5-1 |
| 2025-04-13 | Bahia | Mirassol | Brazil Serie A | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Bahia vs Mirassol odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 55.2%, draw 24.2%, away 20.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.73 | 4.04 | 4.59 |
| Bet365 | 1.73 | 3.70 | 5.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.70 | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| Betano | 1.72 | 3.85 | 4.80 |
| Betfair | 1.70 | 3.90 | 4.60 |
| Dafabet | 1.75 | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.68 | 3.92 | 4.45 |
| Pinnacle | 1.71 | 4.02 | 4.55 |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 3.75 | 4.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .