Bahia
vs
Mirassol
1 – 0 Full time
| 35′ | Chico Kim | ||
| 36′ | Walter Leandro Capeloza Artune | ||
| 38′ | Luciano | ||
| 45′ | Chico KimCarlos Eduardo de Oliveira Alve | ||
| 45′ | Alesson dos Santos BatistaEdson Carioca | ||
| 45′ | Gustavo Henric da SilvaShaylon Kallyson Cardozo | ||
| 59′ | Caio AlexandreErick Luis Conrado Carvalho | ||
| 59′ | Marcos VictorRomán Gómez | ||
| 63′ | Jean Lucas | ||
| 67′ | Bruno Santos de OliveiraAndré Luis | ||
| 72′ | Cristian OliveraAdemir | ||
| 73′ | Denilson Alves BorgesCarlos Eduardo | ||
| 73′ | Rodrigo NestorÉverton Ribeiro | ||
| 78′ | Carlos Eduardo | ||
| 87′ | Alejo VelizWillian José | ||
| 90′ | Neto Moura |
Match stats
| 16 | Shots | 10 |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 53 | Possession % | 47 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Offsides | 1 |
| 2 | Saves | 1 |
| 456 | Accurate passes | 402 |
Bahia vs Mirassol overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Bahia vs Mirassol
| Probability | Bahia | Draw | Mirassol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55.2% | 25.6% | 19.2% |
| Market | 56.0% | 23.9% | 20.1% |
| Final | 55.8% | 24.3% | 19.9% |
| Edge | -0.2% | +0.4% | -0.2% |
Why Bahia
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 0.95.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Bahia and Mirassol expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.71
Bahia and Mirassol attack and defence ratings
Bahia
Mirassol
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Bahia vs Mirassol: result vs prediction
Bahia 1 – 0 Mirassol
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
Before and after this match
Bahia vs Mirassol markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bahia | 55.8% | 1.79 | -0.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.9% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.0% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.1% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.7% | 2.24 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bahia | 55.8% |
| Draw | 24.3% | |
| Mirassol | 19.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.0% |
| No | 48.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 44.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Bahia win | 31.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.5% | |
| Loss | 44.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.2% |
| 1-0 | 10.6% | |
| 2-0 | 10.3% |
Bahia vs Mirassol stats
Bahia and Mirassol recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Bahia and Mirassol going into this match
Bahia record
- They have won 12 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 10 penalties (70%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Mirassol record
- They have won 8 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 29 matches.
Bahia vs Mirassol head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Mirassol | Bahia | Brazil Serie A | 1-2 |
| 2025-08-31 | Mirassol | Bahia | Brazil Serie A | 5-1 |
| 2025-04-13 | Bahia | Mirassol | Brazil Serie A | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Bahia vs Mirassol odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 56.0%, draw 23.9%, away 20.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.73 | 4.04 | 4.59 |
| Bet365 | 1.67 | 3.70 | 5.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.67 | 3.90 | 4.75 |
| Betano | 1.72 | 4.00 | 5.10 |
| Betfair | 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.74 | 3.95 | 4.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.68 | 3.92 | 4.45 |
| Pinnacle | 1.69 | 4.20 | 4.85 |
| SBO | 1.67 | 3.53 | 4.08 |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 3.80 | 4.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .