Atletico-MG
vs
Santos
Garuda Lions Prediction: Atletico-MG
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Atletico-MG vs Santos overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico-MG vs Santos
| Probability | Atletico-MG | Draw | Santos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.2% | 25.2% | 25.6% |
| Market | 47.1% | 27.4% | 25.5% |
| Final | 47.6% | 26.9% | 25.5% |
| Edge | +2.1% | -2.2% | +0.1% |
Why Atletico-MG
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.80 vs 1.26.
- The market prices Atletico-MG below the model: +2.1 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.05, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Atletico-MG vs Santos match preview
Atletico-MG faces Santos in a Brazil Serie A match with kickoff scheduled for October 11, 2026. The model indicates a 47% probability of an Atletico-MG victory, while Santos has a 25% chance, and a draw stands at 28%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Atletico-MG, with a probability of 9%. The expectation for over 2.5 goals is at 51%, and both teams scoring is projected at 55%.
In terms of recent form, Atletico-MG has recorded two wins, one draw, and three losses in their last six matches. Conversely, Santos has been in better form, winning four of their last six games, with one loss. Historically, in their last ten encounters, Atletico-MG has won three times, Santos four times, and there have been three draws.
Atletico-MG and Santos team news
Atletico-MG news
- Cuello — yellow cards
- Everson — foot injury
- Fred — injury
- Gustavo Scarpa — inactive
- M. Cassierra — injury
- Ruan Tressoldi — muscle injury
- T. Perez — suspended
Santos news
- Arthur Melo — injury
- Everton — inactive
- Gabriel Brazao — shoulder injury
- Vinicius Lira — knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Atletico-MG and Santos expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.06
Atletico-MG and Santos attack and defence ratings
Atletico-MG
Santos
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
Before and after this match
Atletico-MG vs Santos markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico-MG | 47.6% | 2.10 | +2.1% | 2.05 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.0% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.8% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.5% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.8% | 1.97 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico-MG | 47.6% |
| Draw | 26.9% | |
| Santos | 25.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.8% |
| No | 39.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico-MG win | 27.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.4% | |
| Loss | 50.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.7% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | |
| 2-0 | 7.6% |
Atletico-MG vs Santos stats
Atletico-MG and Santos recent form
| Atletico-MG |
DWDLWW |
| Santos |
DWWWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atletico-MG and Santos season so far
Atletico-MG record
- They have won 12 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 28 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Santos record
- They have won 11 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atletico-MG vs Santos head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Santos | Atletico-MG | CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 4-2 |
| 2026-09-09 | Atletico-MG | Santos | CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 2-0 |
| 2026-09-09 | Santos | Atletico-MG | CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 2-0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Santos | Atletico-MG | Brazil Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2025-09-14 | Atletico-MG | Santos | Brazil Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2025-04-17 | Santos | Atletico-MG | Brazil Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2023-08-27 | Atletico-MG | Santos | Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2023-04-23 | Santos | Atletico-MG | Serie A | 0-0 |
| 2022-10-06 | Santos | Atletico-MG | Serie A | 1-2 |
| 2022-06-11 | Atletico-MG | Santos | Serie A | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Atletico-MG vs Santos odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 47.1%, draw 27.4%, away 25.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.04 | 3.55 | 3.70 |
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.90 |
| BetVictor | 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| Betano | 2.05 | 3.45 | 3.75 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.75 |
| Dafabet | 2.05 | 3.55 | 3.70 |
| Marathonbet | 1.98 | 3.44 | 3.58 |
| Pinnacle | 2.02 | 3.51 | 3.72 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.30 | 3.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .