Brazil Serie A · 2026-10-11T19:00:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 30

Atletico-MG vs Santos

2 – 1 Full time

8′			Willian ArãoLuan Peres
45′			Alan Franco
45′			Lucas Veríssimo
45′			Victor Hugo Gomes SilvaAlan Minda
45′			Benjamín RollheiserRony
66′			Thiago Borbas
66′			Luan Peres
69′			Alan FrancoMamady Cisse
69′			Kevin CastañoMaycon de Andrade Barberan
70′			Natanael Moreira MilouskiAngelo Preciado
70′			Igor Gomes
72′			Gustavo HenriqueJoão Schmidt
72′			Gabriel BontempoPhilippe Coutinho
82′			Alexsander Cristhian Gomes da CostaEduardo Pereira Rodrigues
85′			João Schmidt
85′			EvertonÁlvaro Barreal
88′			Gabriel Barbosa
89′			Gabriel Barbosa
89′			Willian Arão
90′			Vitor Hugo Franchescoli de Souza
90′			Thiago Borbas

Arena MRV, Bello HarisantaReferee: Alex Gomes Stefano

Atletico-MG

45%

Draw

27%

Santos

28%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

21	Shots	10
5	Shots on target	3
58	Possession %	42
12	Corners	3
10	Fouls	12
1	Offsides	3
2	Saves	4
483	Accurate passes	479

Atletico-MG vs Santos overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico-MG vs Santos

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Atletico-MG	Draw	Santos
Model	49.2%	25.2%	25.6%
Market	43.7%	27.3%	29.0%
Final	45.1%	26.8%	28.2%
Edge	+1.4%	-0.5%	-0.9%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Atletico-MG

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.87 vs 1.21.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

94%

2+ goals

82%

3+ goals

60%

No goals

Atletico-MG and Santos expected goals

Atletico-MG

1.87

Santos

1.21

Total expected goals: 3.08

Atletico-MG and Santos attack and defence ratings

Atletico-MG

Attack

1.20 +20%

Defence

0.95 -5%

Santos

Attack

1.21 +21%

Defence

1.02 +2%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Atletico-MG vs Santos: result vs prediction

Atletico-MG 2 – 1 Santos

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✓ Correct
BTTS pick	✓ Correct

Other Matchday 30 fixtures

Brazil Serie A

Vasco DA Gama vs Remo — team news & stats · 2026-10-10
Sao Paulo v Vitoria — match page · 2026-10-11
Palmeiras vs Corinthians · 2026-10-11
Flamengo vs Fluminense — team news & stats · 2026-10-11
Gremio vs Internacional · 2026-10-11
Bahia vs Mirassol — team news & stats · 2026-10-11
Coritiba vs Botafogo · 2026-10-12
Chapecoense-sc v Atletico Paranaense — match page · 2026-10-12

Before and after this match

Atletico-MG, previous: Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG prediction
Atletico-MG, next: Atletico-MG v Atletico Torque analysis
Santos, previous: Santos vs Flamengo: odds and pick
Santos, next: Fluminense – Santos, 2026-10-18

Atletico-MG vs Santos markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Atletico-MG	45.1%	2.22	+1.4%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	59.0%	1.69	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	60.8%	1.64	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	73.2%	1.37	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	48.1%	2.08	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Atletico-MG	45.1%
	Draw	26.8%
	Santos	28.2%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	59.0%
	Under 2.5	41.0%
Both teams to score	Yes	60.8%
	No	39.2%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	71.8%
	12 (either side)	73.2%
	X2 (draw or away)	54.9%
Handicap -1	Atletico-MG win	30.1%
	Push (exactly one goal)	21.7%
	Loss	48.1%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	11.7%
	2-1	9.6%
	2-0	7.6%

Atletico-MG vs Santos stats

Atletico-MG and Santos recent form

newest first

Atletico-MG	DWDWWL
Santos	DWWLWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Atletico-MG and Santos going into this match

league record before kick-off

Atletico-MG record

They have won 12 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
They have kept 7 clean sheets in 29 matches.
They have failed to score in 9 of 29 matches.
38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Santos record

They have won 11 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
They have failed to score in 3 of 29 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).

Atletico-MG vs Santos head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Atletico-MG wins 3Draws 3Santos wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-09-16	Atletico-MG	Santos	CONMEBOL Sudamericana	4-2
2026-09-09	Santos	Atletico-MG	CONMEBOL Sudamericana	2-0
2026-04-11	Santos	Atletico-MG	Brazil Serie A	1-0
2025-09-14	Atletico-MG	Santos	Brazil Serie A	1-1
2025-04-17	Santos	Atletico-MG	Brazil Serie A	2-0
2023-08-27	Atletico-MG	Santos	Serie A	2-0
2023-04-23	Santos	Atletico-MG	Serie A	0-0
2022-10-06	Santos	Atletico-MG	Serie A	1-2
2022-06-11	Atletico-MG	Santos	Serie A	1-1
2021-10-13	Atletico-MG	Santos	Serie A	3-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Atletico-MG vs Santos odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 43.7%, draw 27.3%, away 29.0%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
1xBet	2.20	3.54	3.28
Bet365	2.15	3.40	3.40
BetVictor	2.15	3.50	3.20
Betano	2.18	3.45	3.35
Betfair	2.10	3.40	3.20
Dafabet	2.20	3.50	3.30
Marathonbet	2.13	3.44	3.18
Pinnacle	2.21	3.54	3.34
SBO	2.12	3.15	2.93
William Hill	2.10	3.30	3.10

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.15 ▲ +0.15

X 3.45 ▲ +0.05

2 3.24 ▼ -0.46

14 snapshots recorded, from 2026-10-05T08:10:01Z.