Brazil Serie A
·
Full time
·Matchday 28
Atletico Paranaense
vs
Bahia
2 – 1 Full time
| 16′ | Lucas Esquivel | ||
| 26′ | erick pulga | ||
| 30′ | Nicolas Acevedo | ||
| 38′ | Juan Aguirre | ||
| 45′ | Arthur Dias | ||
| 45′ | Leonardo Caetano Silvajorge rivaldo | ||
| 45′ | Juan AguirreEduardo Kogitzki Anastacio | ||
| 64′ | Erick Luis Conrado CarvalhoJean Lucas | ||
| 64′ | AdemirKauê Furquim | ||
| 69′ | jorge rivaldo | ||
| 73′ | Nicolas AcevedoCaio Alexandre | ||
| 74′ | Kauê Furquim | ||
| 79′ | Kerwin VargasBruno Zapelli | ||
| 80′ | GilbertoGilberto Junior | ||
| 85′ | Alejo VelizEveraldo Stum | ||
| 85′ | Rodrigo Nestor | ||
| 85′ | Rodrigo NestorÉverton Ribeiro | ||
| 89′ | jorge rivaldo | ||
| 90′ | Odair Hellmann | ||
| 90′ | Odair Hellmann |
Atletico Paranaense
43%
Draw
27%
Bahia
30%
Match stats
| 11 | Shots | 10 |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 60 | Possession % | 40 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Offsides | 2 |
| 2 | Saves | 4 |
| 428 | Accurate passes | 454 |
Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia
| Probability | Atletico Paranaense | Draw | Bahia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.2% | 23.8% | 34.0% |
| Market | 43.0% | 27.8% | 29.1% |
| Final | 42.8% | 26.8% | 30.3% |
| Edge | -0.8% | -4.0% | +4.9% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
96%
2+ goals
88%
3+ goals
69%
No goals
4%
Atletico Paranaense and Bahia expected goals
Atletico Paranaense
1.87
Bahia
1.68
Total expected goals: 3.55
Atletico Paranaense and Bahia attack and defence ratings
Atletico Paranaense
Attack
1.27 +27%
Defence
1.22 +22%
Bahia
Attack
1.30 +30%
Defence
0.97 -3%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia: result vs prediction
Atletico Paranaense 2 – 1 Bahia
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 28 fixtures
Before and after this match
Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Paranaense | 42.8% | 2.33 | -0.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.8% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.7% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.2% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.0% | 1.72 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Paranaense | 42.8% |
| Draw | 26.8% | |
| Bahia | 30.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 31.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.7% |
| No | 30.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Paranaense win | 23.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.7% | |
| Loss | 58.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.9% |
| 2-1 | 8.5% | |
| 1-2 | 7.5% |
Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia stats
Atletico Paranaense and Bahia recent form
| Atletico Paranaense |
DLDWDW |
| Bahia |
WWWWDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atletico Paranaense and Bahia going into this match
Atletico Paranaense record
- They have won 13 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
Bahia record
- They have won 12 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 9 penalties (78%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
3Atletico Paranaense wins
2Draws
5Bahia wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-01 | Bahia | Atletico Paranaense | Brazil Serie A | 3-0 |
| 2024-11-24 | Bahia | Atletico Paranaense | Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2024-07-10 | Atletico Paranaense | Bahia | Serie A | 1-3 |
| 2023-11-12 | Bahia | Atletico Paranaense | Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2023-07-16 | Atletico Paranaense | Bahia | Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2022-07-12 | Atletico Paranaense | Bahia | Copa Do Brasil | 2-1 |
| 2022-06-22 | Bahia | Atletico Paranaense | Copa Do Brasil | 1-2 |
| 2021-10-09 | Atletico Paranaense | Bahia | Serie A | 0-2 |
| 2021-06-25 | Bahia | Atletico Paranaense | Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2021-01-20 | Bahia | Atletico Paranaense | Serie A | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 43.0%, draw 27.8%, away 29.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.23 | 3.42 | 3.32 |
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.30 | 3.30 |
| BetVictor | 2.20 | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| Betano | 2.22 | 3.45 | 3.25 |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 3.50 | 3.25 |
| Marathonbet | 2.16 | 3.32 | 3.22 |
| Pinnacle | 2.24 | 3.46 | 3.35 |
| SBO | 2.20 | 3.12 | 2.99 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 3.20 | 3.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.20 ▲ +0.18
X
3.40 ▲ +0.08
2
3.25 ▼ -0.36
14 snapshots recorded, from .