Fluminense
vs
Internacional
Garuda Lions Prediction: Fluminense
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.82 vs 0.82.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Fluminense vs Internacional overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Fluminense vs Internacional
| Probability | Fluminense | Draw | Internacional |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60.1% | 24.6% | 15.3% |
| Market | 46.7% | 28.2% | 25.1% |
| Final | 50.1% | 27.3% | 22.6% |
| Edge | +3.3% | -0.9% | -2.4% |
Why Fluminense
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.82 vs 0.82.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Fluminense below our published probability: +3.3 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.06, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +3.1% per unit staked (our 50.1% × 2.06 − 1).
Fluminense vs Internacional match preview
Fluminense faces Internacional in a Brazil Serie A clash with a kickoff set for October 28, 2026. Fluminense holds a 50% probability of winning, while Internacional has a 23% chance, and a draw stands at 27%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-0 in favor of Fluminense, with expected goals of 1.82 for Fluminense and 0.82 for Internacional.
In terms of recent form, Fluminense has recorded two wins and three losses in their last five matches, while Internacional has one win, two losses, and two draws. The head-to-head record over the last five encounters shows Fluminense with three victories, one draw, and one win for Internacional. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating moderate certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Fluminense and Internacional expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.64
Fluminense and Internacional attack and defence ratings
Fluminense
Internacional
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
- Santos v Palmeiras — match page
- RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense-sc
- Bahia vs Sao Paulo — team news & stats
- Remo vs Botafogo — team news & stats
- Coritiba vs Vitoria — team news & stats
- Atletico-MG v Cruzeiro — match page
- Vasco DA Gama v Flamengo — match page
- Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Fluminense vs Internacional markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fluminense | 50.1% | 2.00 | +3.3% | 2.06 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.7% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.0% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.4% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 39.9% | 2.51 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fluminense | 50.1% |
| Draw | 27.3% | |
| Internacional | 22.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.0% |
| No | 52.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 49.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Fluminense win | 35.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.3% | |
| Loss | 39.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 11.9% |
| 2-0 | 11.8% | |
| 1-1 | 11.7% |
Fluminense vs Internacional stats
Fluminense and Internacional recent form
| Fluminense |
WLLLWW |
| Internacional |
LDWLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Fluminense and Internacional season so far
Fluminense record
- They have won 14 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 31 matches.
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Internacional record
- They have won 7 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 31 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fluminense vs Internacional head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Internacional | Fluminense | Brazil Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Fluminense | Internacional | Brazil Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-07 | Fluminense | Internacional | Copa Do Brasil | 1-1 |
| 2025-07-31 | Internacional | Fluminense | Copa Do Brasil | 1-2 |
| 2025-06-01 | Internacional | Fluminense | Brazil Serie A | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Fluminense vs Internacional odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 46.7%, draw 28.2%, away 25.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.06 | 3.42 | 3.76 |
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 3.25 | 3.60 |
| BetVictor | 2.00 | 3.25 | 3.70 |
| Betano | 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| Betfair | 1.95 | 3.30 | 3.80 |
| Dafabet | 2.03 | 3.45 | 3.85 |
| Marathonbet | 2.00 | 3.32 | 3.65 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 3.20 | 3.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .