Vitoria
vs
Fluminense
Garuda Lions Prediction: Fluminense
0 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Fluminense is the favourite, not a value bet.
Vitoria vs Fluminense overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Vitoria vs Fluminense
| Probability | Vitoria | Draw | Fluminense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.2% | 28.9% | 34.0% |
| Market | 34.4% | 28.6% | 37.0% |
| Final | 35.1% | 28.7% | 36.3% |
| Edge | +0.7% | +0.1% | -0.8% |
Why Fluminense
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.65, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.9% per unit staked (our 36.3% × 2.65 − 1).
Vitoria vs Fluminense match preview
Vitoria faces Fluminense in a tightly contested Brazil Serie A match, with the probabilities reflecting a close matchup: Vitoria at 35%, a draw at 29%, and Fluminense at 37%. Our model predicts the most likely scoreline to be 0-1, with expected goals of 1.33 for Vitoria and 1.27 for Fluminense. Both teams have shown a tendency to score, with a 54% likelihood of both teams finding the net.
Recent form indicates Vitoria has struggled, recording one win in their last six matches, while Fluminense has lost three of their last six. In their last ten encounters, Vitoria has secured 2 wins, Fluminense 3, and there have been 5 draws, highlighting the competitive nature of this fixture. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting a degree of uncertainty in the predictions.
Vitoria and Fluminense team news
Vitoria news
- Camutanga — broken leg
- Dudu — back injury
- E. Britez — yellow cards
- Edu — achilles tendon injury
- Fabiano — knee injury
- Matheusinho — inactive
- Nathan Mendes — knee injury
- Ramon — leg injury
- Riccieli — calf injury
Fluminense news
- Alisson — hip injury
- Ignacio — yellow cards
- J. Millan — inactive
- John Kennedy — knee injury
- Martinelli — inactive
- Matheus Reis — knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Vitoria and Fluminense expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.60
Vitoria and Fluminense attack and defence ratings
Vitoria
Fluminense
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
Before and after this match
Vitoria vs Fluminense markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fluminense | 36.3% | 2.76 | -0.8% | 2.65 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.2% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.3% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 66.0% | 1.51 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vitoria | 35.1% |
| Draw | 28.7% | |
| Fluminense | 36.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 51.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.2% |
| No | 45.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 63.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 64.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Fluminense win | 15.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.7% | |
| Loss | 66.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.8% |
| 0-0 | 8.7% | |
| 1-0 | 8.6% |
Vitoria vs Fluminense stats
Vitoria and Fluminense recent form
| Vitoria |
LDDLWL |
| Fluminense |
WLWLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Vitoria and Fluminense season so far
Vitoria record
- They have won 10 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
Fluminense record
- They have won 15 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 33 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vitoria vs Fluminense head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Fluminense | Vitoria | Brazil Serie A | 2-2 |
| 2025-09-20 | Vitoria | Fluminense | Brazil Serie A | 0-1 |
| 2025-04-20 | Fluminense | Vitoria | Brazil Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2024-10-26 | Vitoria | Fluminense | Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2024-06-27 | Fluminense | Vitoria | Serie A | 0-1 |
| 2018-09-06 | Fluminense | Vitoria | Serie A | 0-0 |
| 2018-05-06 | Vitoria | Fluminense | Serie A | 1-2 |
| 2017-09-10 | Vitoria | Fluminense | Serie A | 2-2 |
| 2017-06-03 | Fluminense | Vitoria | Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2016-10-28 | Fluminense | Vitoria | Serie A | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Vitoria vs Fluminense odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.4%, draw 28.6%, away 37.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.79 | 3.40 | 2.57 |
| Bet365 | 2.80 | 3.25 | 2.60 |
| BetVictor | 2.70 | 3.30 | 2.55 |
| Betano | 2.80 | 3.35 | 2.55 |
| Betfair | 2.70 | 3.25 | 2.50 |
| Dafabet | 2.80 | 3.35 | 2.60 |
| Marathonbet | 2.70 | 3.30 | 2.49 |
| Pinnacle | 2.81 | 3.35 | 2.65 |
| SBO | 2.66 | 3.11 | 2.42 |
| William Hill | 2.70 | 3.10 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
18 snapshots recorded, from .