Coritiba
vs
Vitoria
Garuda Lions Prediction: Vitoria
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Coritiba vs Vitoria overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Coritiba vs Vitoria
| Probability | Coritiba | Draw | Vitoria |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34.6% | 27.0% | 38.4% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 34.6% | 27.0% | 38.4% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Vitoria
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Coritiba vs Vitoria match preview
Coritiba faces Vitoria in a Brazil Serie A match on October 29, 2026. According to our model, Coritiba has a 35% chance of winning, while Vitoria is slightly favored at 38%. The likelihood of a draw stands at 27%. The most probable scoreline is 1-2 in favor of Vitoria, with a 9% chance of occurring. Both teams are expected to score, with a 60% probability, and there is a 56% chance that the match will see over 2.5 goals.
In terms of recent form, Coritiba has struggled with five matches without a win (L-D-L-L-D-L), while Vitoria has shown some resilience, managing two wins in their last five outings (D-L-W-L-D-W). The expected goals for Coritiba are 1.42, compared to Vitoria's 1.50, indicating a closely contested match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Coritiba and Vitoria expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.92
Coritiba and Vitoria attack and defence ratings
Coritiba
Vitoria
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
Before and after this match
Coritiba vs Vitoria markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vitoria | 38.4% | 2.60 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.8% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.0% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.0% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.6% | 1.62 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Coritiba | 34.6% |
| Draw | 27.0% | |
| Vitoria | 38.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.0% |
| No | 40.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 61.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 65.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Vitoria win | 19.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.3% | |
| Loss | 61.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.6% |
| 1-2 | 8.6% | |
| 2-1 | 8.1% |
Coritiba vs Vitoria stats
Coritiba and Vitoria recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Coritiba and Vitoria season so far
Coritiba record
- They have won 10 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vitoria record
- They have won 10 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
Coritiba vs Vitoria head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Vitoria | Coritiba | Brazil Serie A | 4-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.