Flamengo
vs
Atletico Paranaense
Garuda Lions Prediction: Flamengo
3 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.05 vs 0.79.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Flamengo is the favourite, not a value bet.
Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense
| Probability | Flamengo | Draw | Atletico Paranaense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 81.5% | 12.5% | 6.0% |
| Market | 76.2% | 15.5% | 8.3% |
| Final | 77.5% | 14.7% | 7.7% |
| Edge | +1.3% | -0.8% | -0.6% |
Why Flamengo
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.05 vs 0.79.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.25, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.1% per unit staked (our 77.5% × 1.25 − 1).
Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense match preview
Flamengo enters this match against Atletico Paranaense with a strong probability of winning at 77%. Their recent form shows three wins, two draws, and a solid expected goals figure of 3.05, indicating a potent attacking threat. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 3-0, which aligns with a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 74%.
In contrast, Atletico Paranaense has struggled recently, recording two losses, three draws, and only one win in their last six matches. Their expected goals are significantly lower at 0.79, suggesting difficulties in creating scoring opportunities. The teams have faced each other once recently, resulting in a draw, but Flamengo's current form and statistical edge make them the favorites for this encounter.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Flamengo and Atletico Paranaense expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.84
Flamengo and Atletico Paranaense attack and defence ratings
Flamengo
Atletico Paranaense
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
Before and after this match
Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Flamengo | 77.5% | 1.29 | +1.3% | 1.25 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.8% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.7% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 92.3% | 1.08 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Flamengo win | 63.6% | 1.57 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Flamengo | 77.5% |
| Draw | 14.7% | |
| Atletico Paranaense | 7.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 26.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.7% |
| No | 47.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 92.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 85.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 22.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Flamengo win | 63.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.8% | |
| Loss | 18.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-0 | 10.1% |
| 2-0 | 10.0% | |
| 3-1 | 8.0% |
Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense stats
Flamengo and Atletico Paranaense recent form
| Flamengo |
WWWDWD |
| Atletico Paranaense |
LLDLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Flamengo and Atletico Paranaense season so far
Flamengo record
- They have won 22 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atletico Paranaense record
- They have won 15 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Atletico Paranaense | Flamengo | Brazil Serie A | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 76.2%, draw 15.5%, away 8.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.24 | 6.48 | 12.10 |
| Bet365 | 1.22 | 5.50 | 11.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.22 | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| Betano | 1.25 | 6.10 | 11.75 |
| Betfair | 1.20 | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.25 | 6.40 | 12.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.22 | 6.00 | 11.25 |
| Pinnacle | 1.24 | 6.63 | 11.17 |
| SBO | 1.21 | 5.22 | 8.10 |
| William Hill | 1.22 | 5.80 | 11.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
26 snapshots recorded, from .