Coritiba
vs
Santos
Garuda Lions Prediction: Santos
0 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Santos is the favourite, not a value bet.
Coritiba vs Santos overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Coritiba vs Santos
| Probability | Coritiba | Draw | Santos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33.2% | 29.9% | 36.9% |
| Market | 28.1% | 26.3% | 45.6% |
| Final | 29.4% | 27.2% | 43.4% |
| Edge | +1.3% | +0.9% | -2.2% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.18, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.3% per unit staked (our 43.4% × 2.18 − 1).
Coritiba vs Santos match preview
Coritiba faces Santos in a Brazil Serie A match with both teams showing mixed recent form. Coritiba's last six matches resulted in one win, two draws, and three losses, while Santos recorded one win, three draws, and two losses in their recent outings. The probabilities suggest Santos holds a slight edge with a 42% chance of winning compared to Coritiba's 31% and a 27% chance of a draw.
According to our model, the most likely scoreline is 0-1 in favor of Santos, with expected goals of 1.19 for Coritiba and 1.26 for Santos. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals stands at 44%, while both teams scoring is estimated at 51%. The head-to-head record in their last three encounters shows an even split, with each team securing one win and one draw.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Coritiba and Santos expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.45
Coritiba and Santos attack and defence ratings
Coritiba
Santos
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
Before and after this match
Coritiba vs Santos markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Santos | 43.4% | 2.30 | -2.2% | 2.18 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.7% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.1% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.8% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 63.1% | 1.58 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Coritiba | 29.4% |
| Draw | 27.2% | |
| Santos | 43.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.1% |
| No | 48.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 56.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 70.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Santos win | 16.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.1% | |
| Loss | 63.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.2% |
| 0-0 | 9.9% | |
| 0-1 | 9.6% |
Coritiba vs Santos stats
Coritiba and Santos recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Coritiba and Santos season so far
Coritiba record
- They have won 11 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Santos record
- They have won 12 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Coritiba vs Santos head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Santos | Coritiba | Brazil Serie A | 0-3 |
| 2026-05-13 | Coritiba | Santos | Copa Do Brasil | 0-2 |
| 2026-04-22 | Santos | Coritiba | Copa Do Brasil | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Coritiba vs Santos odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 28.1%, draw 26.3%, away 45.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.44 | 3.65 | 2.09 |
| Bet365 | 3.40 | 3.40 | 1.95 |
| BetVictor | 3.30 | 3.60 | 2.00 |
| Betano | 3.30 | 3.55 | 2.18 |
| Betfair | 3.25 | 3.50 | 2.05 |
| Dafabet | 3.45 | 3.65 | 2.10 |
| Marathonbet | 3.34 | 3.54 | 2.03 |
| Pinnacle | 3.52 | 3.66 | 2.04 |
| SBO | 2.99 | 3.22 | 1.98 |
| William Hill | 3.25 | 3.30 | 2.05 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
26 snapshots recorded, from .