Corinthians
vs
Botafogo
Garuda Lions Prediction: Corinthians
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.43 vs 0.91.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Corinthians is the favourite, not a value bet.
Corinthians vs Botafogo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Corinthians vs Botafogo
| Probability | Corinthians | Draw | Botafogo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.8% | 29.4% | 22.8% |
| Market | 51.3% | 25.9% | 22.8% |
| Final | 50.4% | 26.8% | 22.8% |
| Edge | -0.9% | +0.9% | +0.0% |
Why Corinthians
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.43 vs 0.91.
Best available price on the pick: 1.90, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.2% per unit staked (our 50.4% × 1.90 − 1).
Corinthians vs Botafogo match preview
Corinthians are set to face Botafogo in a Brazil Serie A clash, with their recent form showing a mixed bag of results: Corinthians have drawn once and lost four of their last six matches, while Botafogo has won two out of their last six. According to our model, Corinthians have a 50% probability of winning, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0 at a 12% chance. The expected goals for Corinthians stand at 1.43, while Botafogo is projected to score 0.91.
In terms of scoring potential, our model indicates a 42% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance that both teams will find the net. The recent head-to-head record shows Corinthians with no wins, two draws, and one loss against Botafogo in their last three encounters, suggesting a competitive matchup ahead.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Corinthians and Botafogo expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.34
Corinthians and Botafogo attack and defence ratings
Corinthians
Botafogo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
Before and after this match
Corinthians vs Botafogo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Corinthians | 50.4% | 1.98 | -0.9% | 1.90 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58.5% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.2% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.2% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.2% | 1.91 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Corinthians | 50.4% |
| Draw | 26.8% | |
| Botafogo | 22.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 58.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.8% |
| No | 53.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 49.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Corinthians win | 24.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.6% | |
| Loss | 52.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.8% |
| 1-0 | 12.5% | |
| 0-0 | 10.9% |
Corinthians vs Botafogo stats
Corinthians and Botafogo recent form
| Corinthians |
DWLDLL |
| Botafogo |
WLLWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Corinthians and Botafogo season so far
Corinthians record
- They have won 9 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Botafogo record
- They have won 10 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 33 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Corinthians vs Botafogo head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Botafogo | Corinthians | Brazil Serie A | 3-1 |
| 2025-11-30 | Corinthians | Botafogo | Brazil Serie A | 2-2 |
| 2025-07-26 | Botafogo | Corinthians | Brazil Serie A | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Corinthians vs Botafogo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 51.3%, draw 25.9%, away 22.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.86 | 3.75 | 4.22 |
| Bet365 | 1.83 | 3.50 | 4.10 |
| BetVictor | 1.75 | 3.60 | 4.33 |
| Betano | 1.90 | 3.60 | 4.10 |
| Betfair | 1.80 | 3.60 | 4.10 |
| Dafabet | 1.87 | 3.70 | 4.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.80 | 3.64 | 4.10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.81 | 3.81 | 4.26 |
| SBO | 1.77 | 3.17 | 3.76 |
| William Hill | 1.83 | 3.50 | 3.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
26 snapshots recorded, from .