Sao Paulo
vs
Fluminense
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sao Paulo
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Sao Paulo is the favourite, not a value bet.
Sao Paulo vs Fluminense overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sao Paulo vs Fluminense
| Probability | Sao Paulo | Draw | Fluminense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33.6% | 31.0% | 35.4% |
| Market | 40.7% | 29.0% | 30.3% |
| Final | 38.9% | 29.5% | 31.6% |
| Edge | -1.8% | +0.5% | +1.3% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.42, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.9% per unit staked (our 38.9% × 2.42 − 1).
Sao Paulo vs Fluminense match preview
Sao Paulo faces Fluminense in a tightly contested match, with Sao Paulo holding a 39% probability of victory compared to Fluminense's 31%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Sao Paulo, with an expected goals tally of 1.13 for Sao Paulo and 1.17 for Fluminense. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Sao Paulo recording two wins and three draws in their last five matches, while Fluminense has two wins and three losses.
In their last three encounters, Sao Paulo has secured one win, while Fluminense has claimed two victories. The probability of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 40%, and the likelihood of both teams scoring stands at 48%. With a confidence grade of C, this matchup promises to be competitive, reflecting the closely matched capabilities of both teams.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sao Paulo and Fluminense expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.30
Sao Paulo and Fluminense attack and defence ratings
Sao Paulo
Fluminense
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sao Paulo vs Fluminense markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sao Paulo | 38.9% | 2.57 | -1.8% | 2.42 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 59.5% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.9% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.5% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 66.4% | 1.51 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sao Paulo | 38.9% |
| Draw | 29.5% | |
| Fluminense | 31.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 59.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.1% |
| No | 51.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sao Paulo win | 14.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.4% | |
| Loss | 66.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.6% |
| 0-0 | 11.3% | |
| 0-1 | 10.4% |
Sao Paulo vs Fluminense stats
Sao Paulo and Fluminense recent form
| Sao Paulo |
DLDWWL |
| Fluminense |
WWLWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sao Paulo and Fluminense season so far
Sao Paulo record
- They have won 12 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fluminense record
- They have won 15 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 33 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sao Paulo vs Fluminense head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Fluminense | Sao Paulo | Brazil Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2025-11-27 | Fluminense | Sao Paulo | Brazil Serie A | 6-0 |
| 2025-07-27 | Sao Paulo | Fluminense | Brazil Serie A | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sao Paulo vs Fluminense odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.7%, draw 29.0%, away 30.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.34 | 3.28 | 3.22 |
| Bet365 | 2.30 | 3.20 | 3.10 |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.25 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.32 | 3.30 | 3.15 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.32 | 3.30 | 3.20 |
| Marathonbet | 2.27 | 3.18 | 3.12 |
| Pinnacle | 2.42 | 3.27 | 3.07 |
| SBO | 2.23 | 2.96 | 2.75 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
20 snapshots recorded, from .