Chapecoense-sc
vs
Vasco DA Gama
Garuda Lions Prediction: Vasco DA Gama
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 1.16.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Vasco DA Gama is the favourite, not a value bet.
Chapecoense-sc vs Vasco DA Gama overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Chapecoense-sc vs Vasco DA Gama
| Probability | Chapecoense-sc | Draw | Vasco DA Gama |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24.4% | 25.9% | 49.7% |
| Market | 12.7% | 19.9% | 67.4% |
| Final | 15.7% | 21.4% | 63.0% |
| Edge | +2.9% | +1.5% | -4.4% |
Why Vasco DA Gama
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 1.16.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.44, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.3% per unit staked (our 63.0% × 1.44 − 1).
Chapecoense-sc vs Vasco DA Gama match preview
Chapecoense-sc faces Vasco DA Gama in a Brazil Serie A matchup with kickoff scheduled for November 14, 2026. According to our model, Chapecoense-sc has a 16% chance of winning, while Vasco DA Gama stands at 62%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, with an expected goals tally of 1.16 for Chapecoense-sc and 1.74 for Vasco DA Gama.
Recent form shows Chapecoense-sc struggling with six losses in their last six matches, while Vasco DA Gama has had a mixed performance, winning three of their last six. Historically, in their last ten encounters, Chapecoense-sc has secured one win, with Vasco DA Gama winning two and seven matches ending in draws. The probabilities suggest a competitive match, with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% likelihood of both teams scoring.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Chapecoense-sc and Vasco DA Gama expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.90
Chapecoense-sc and Vasco DA Gama attack and defence ratings
Chapecoense-sc
Vasco DA Gama
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 21 fixtures
Before and after this match
Chapecoense-sc vs Vasco DA Gama markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vasco DA Gama | 63.0% | 1.59 | -4.4% | 1.44 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.4% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.7% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 84.3% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.3% | 1.99 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chapecoense-sc | 15.7% |
| Draw | 21.4% | |
| Vasco DA Gama | 63.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.7% |
| No | 42.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 37.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 84.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Vasco DA Gama win | 27.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.0% | |
| Loss | 50.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.2% |
| 1-2 | 9.7% | |
| 0-1 | 8.5% |
Chapecoense-sc vs Vasco DA Gama stats
Chapecoense-sc and Vasco DA Gama recent form
| Chapecoense-sc |
LLWLLL |
| Vasco DA Gama |
WWLLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Chapecoense-sc and Vasco DA Gama season so far
Chapecoense-sc record
- They have won 4 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Vasco DA Gama record
- They have won 11 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Chapecoense-sc vs Vasco DA Gama head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-05 | Vasco DA Gama | Chapecoense-sc | Brazil Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2022-07-31 | Vasco DA Gama | Chapecoense-sc | Serie B | 0-0 |
| 2022-04-23 | Chapecoense-sc | Vasco DA Gama | Serie B | 0-0 |
| 2019-12-08 | Vasco DA Gama | Chapecoense-sc | Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2019-09-14 | Chapecoense-sc | Vasco DA Gama | Serie A | 1-2 |
| 2018-08-26 | Vasco DA Gama | Chapecoense-sc | Serie A | 3-1 |
| 2018-04-22 | Chapecoense-sc | Vasco DA Gama | Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2017-09-30 | Vasco DA Gama | Chapecoense-sc | Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2017-06-15 | Chapecoense-sc | Vasco DA Gama | Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2015-10-15 | Vasco DA Gama | Chapecoense-sc | Serie A | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Chapecoense-sc vs Vasco DA Gama odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 12.7%, draw 19.9%, away 67.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 7.24 | 4.86 | 1.43 |
| Bet365 | 7.50 | 4.75 | 1.40 |
| BetVictor | 7.50 | 4.60 | 1.40 |
| Betano | 8.00 | 4.90 | 1.44 |
| Betfair | 7.00 | 4.60 | 1.36 |
| Dafabet | 7.60 | 5.00 | 1.41 |
| Marathonbet | 7.00 | 4.70 | 1.39 |
| Pinnacle | 7.40 | 5.07 | 1.43 |
| William Hill | 6.50 | 4.60 | 1.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .