Atletico Torque
vs
Cerro
Garuda Lions Prediction: Atletico Torque
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.63 vs 1.10.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Atletico Torque is the favourite, not a value bet.
Atletico Torque vs Cerro overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico Torque vs Cerro
| Probability | Atletico Torque | Draw | Cerro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.6% | 27.0% | 24.4% |
| Market | 61.4% | 23.3% | 15.3% |
| Final | 58.2% | 24.2% | 17.5% |
| Edge | -3.2% | +0.9% | +2.3% |
Why Atletico Torque
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.63 vs 1.10.
Best available price on the pick: 1.53, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.9% per unit staked (our 58.2% × 1.53 − 1).
Atletico Torque vs Cerro match preview
Atletico Torque faces Cerro in the upcoming match, with model probabilities suggesting a 44% chance of a home win, a 27% chance of a draw, and a 28% chance for an away victory. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Atletico Torque, with a 9% probability. Expected goals are calculated at 1.55 for Atletico Torque and 1.19 for Cerro, indicating a potentially competitive encounter.
In terms of recent form, Atletico Torque has struggled with two losses, one win, one draw, and two additional losses in their last six matches. Conversely, Cerro has shown some resilience with two draws, one win, and two losses, followed by a recent victory. The head-to-head record favors Atletico Torque, who has one win and one draw against Cerro in their last two meetings.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Atletico Torque and Cerro expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.73
Atletico Torque and Cerro attack and defence ratings
Atletico Torque
Cerro
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Atletico Torque vs Cerro markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Torque | 58.2% | 1.72 | -3.2% | 1.53 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.4% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.8% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.5% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.4% | 1.95 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Torque | 58.2% |
| Draw | 24.2% | |
| Cerro | 17.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.8% |
| No | 45.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 41.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Torque win | 26.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.3% | |
| Loss | 51.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.9% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | |
| 1-0 | 9.5% |
Atletico Torque vs Cerro stats
Atletico Torque and Cerro recent form
| Atletico Torque |
WLLWLD |
| Cerro |
DWLDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atletico Torque and Cerro season so far
Atletico Torque record
- They have won 17 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cerro record
- They have won 10 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 32 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atletico Torque vs Cerro head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Cerro | Atletico Torque | Uruguay Primera División | 1-1 |
| 2025-04-20 | Cerro | Atletico Torque | Uruguay Primera División | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Atletico Torque vs Cerro odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 61.4%, draw 23.3%, away 15.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.45 | 3.95 | 6.12 |
| Bet365 | 1.48 | 3.70 | 6.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.50 | 3.80 | 6.00 |
| Betano | 1.52 | 3.85 | 5.50 |
| Betfair | 1.44 | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.53 | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.44 | 3.95 | 5.85 |
| Pinnacle | 1.50 | 4.15 | 6.26 |
| SBO | 1.45 | 3.55 | 5.13 |
| William Hill | 1.50 | 3.90 | 6.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .