Juventud
vs
Penarol
Garuda Lions Prediction: Penarol
0 – 1 Predicted score · 15% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Penarol is the favourite, not a value bet.
Juventud vs Penarol overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Juventud vs Penarol
| Probability | Juventud | Draw | Penarol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27.9% | 35.5% | 36.6% |
| Market | 23.3% | 27.7% | 49.1% |
| Final | 24.4% | 29.6% | 45.9% |
| Edge | +1.2% | +2.0% | -3.1% |
Why Penarol
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.99, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.6% per unit staked (our 45.9% × 1.99 − 1).
Juventud vs Penarol match preview
Juventud faces Penarol in the upcoming match with a probability of 25% for Juventud to win, 30% for a draw, and 45% for Penarol to secure victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1, occurring with a 15% likelihood. Expected goals for Juventud stand at 0.81, while Penarol is projected at 0.97, indicating a slight edge for the visitors.
In terms of recent form, Juventud has recorded a sequence of results with one win, two draws, and two losses, while Penarol has performed better with two wins, three draws, and one loss in their last six matches. Historically, in the last ten encounters, Juventud has won once, drawn four times, and lost five times to Penarol, suggesting a challenging matchup for the home side.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Juventud and Penarol expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.79
Juventud and Penarol attack and defence ratings
Juventud
Penarol
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Juventud vs Penarol markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Penarol | 45.9% | 2.18 | -3.1% | 1.99 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 73.4% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 64.0% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 75.6% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 63.4% | 1.58 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Juventud | 24.4% |
| Draw | 29.6% | |
| Penarol | 45.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 26.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 73.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 36.0% |
| No | 64.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 54.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 75.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Penarol win | 14.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.3% | |
| Loss | 63.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 18.1% |
| 0-1 | 15.0% | |
| 1-1 | 14.6% |
Juventud vs Penarol stats
Juventud and Penarol recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Juventud and Penarol season so far
Juventud record
- They have won 10 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Penarol record
- They have won 20 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Juventud vs Penarol head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-20 | Penarol | Juventud | Uruguay Primera División | 2-2 |
| 2025-09-21 | Penarol | Juventud | Primera División - Clausura | 1-0 |
| 2025-03-27 | Juventud | Penarol | Uruguay Primera División | 0-2 |
| 2019-09-21 | Juventud | Penarol | Primera División - Clausura | 1-1 |
| 2019-08-18 | Penarol | Juventud | Primera División - Clausura | 0-0 |
| 2019-03-03 | Penarol | Juventud | Primera División - Apertura | 4-1 |
| 2017-11-11 | Penarol | Juventud | Primera División - Clausura | 1-0 |
| 2017-04-08 | Juventud | Penarol | Primera División - Apertura | 0-2 |
| 2016-09-25 | Juventud | Penarol | Primera División - Apertura | 1-0 |
| 2016-06-04 | Juventud | Penarol | Primera División - Clausura | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Juventud vs Penarol odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 23.3%, draw 27.7%, away 49.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.02 | 3.28 | 1.81 |
| Bet365 | 3.90 | 3.20 | 1.85 |
| BetVictor | 4.00 | 3.30 | 1.85 |
| Betano | 3.80 | 3.25 | 1.88 |
| Betfair | 3.70 | 3.30 | 1.95 |
| Dafabet | 3.85 | 3.45 | 1.99 |
| Marathonbet | 3.92 | 3.28 | 1.79 |
| Pinnacle | 4.25 | 3.46 | 1.85 |
| William Hill | 3.90 | 3.20 | 1.91 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .