Penarol
vs
Wanderers
Garuda Lions Prediction: Penarol
2 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.88 vs 0.63.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Penarol is the favourite, not a value bet.
Penarol vs Wanderers overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Penarol vs Wanderers
| Probability | Penarol | Draw | Wanderers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 66.4% | 22.9% | 10.6% |
| Market | 63.4% | 22.5% | 14.0% |
| Final | 64.2% | 22.6% | 13.2% |
| Edge | +0.8% | +0.1% | -0.8% |
Why Penarol
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.88 vs 0.63.
Best available price on the pick: 1.50, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.8% per unit staked (our 64.2% × 1.50 − 1).
Penarol vs Wanderers match preview
Penarol enters this match with a 65% probability of winning, reflecting their strong recent form, which includes two wins in their last five matches. They have an expected goals figure of 1.91, indicating a solid attacking performance. In contrast, Wanderers have a lower probability of 12% to secure victory, with an expected goals tally of just 0.70. Their recent form shows inconsistency, with two wins in their last five matches.
Historically, Penarol has dominated their recent encounters with Wanderers, winning three of the last four meetings. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0 in favor of Penarol, which aligns with the 48% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored and a 44% likelihood that both teams will find the net.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Penarol and Wanderers expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.50
Penarol and Wanderers attack and defence ratings
Penarol
Wanderers
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Penarol vs Wanderers markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Penarol | 64.2% | 1.56 | +0.8% | 1.50 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.3% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.7% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.8% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Penarol win | 41.1% | 2.44 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Penarol | 64.2% |
| Draw | 22.6% | |
| Wanderers | 13.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.3% |
| No | 59.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 35.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Penarol win | 41.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.4% | |
| Loss | 33.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 14.4% |
| 1-0 | 14.4% | |
| 1-1 | 10.6% |
Penarol vs Wanderers stats
Penarol and Wanderers recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Penarol and Wanderers season so far
Penarol record
- They have won 20 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Wanderers record
- They have won 14 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Penarol vs Wanderers head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | Penarol | Wanderers | Uruguay Primera División | 5-1 |
| 2026-04-26 | Wanderers | Penarol | Uruguay Primera División | 1-0 |
| 2025-06-22 | Penarol | Wanderers | Uruguay Primera División | 2-0 |
| 2025-04-19 | Wanderers | Penarol | Uruguay Primera División | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Penarol vs Wanderers odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 63.4%, draw 22.5%, away 14.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.40 | 4.05 | 6.88 |
| Bet365 | 1.45 | 4.00 | 5.75 |
| Betano | 1.50 | 4.05 | 6.40 |
| Betfair | 1.40 | 4.00 | 6.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.39 | 4.05 | 6.55 |
| Pinnacle | 1.46 | 4.19 | 6.86 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 3.90 | 6.50 |