Racing Montevideo
vs
Cerro Largo
Garuda Lions Prediction: Racing Montevideo
1 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.36 vs 0.78.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Racing Montevideo is the favourite, not a value bet.
Racing Montevideo vs Cerro Largo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Racing Montevideo vs Cerro Largo
| Probability | Racing Montevideo | Draw | Cerro Largo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.5% | 30.4% | 20.1% |
| Market | 53.3% | 26.6% | 20.1% |
| Final | 52.3% | 27.6% | 20.1% |
| Edge | -0.9% | +1.0% | -0.0% |
Why Racing Montevideo
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.36 vs 0.78.
Best available price on the pick: 1.70, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.1% per unit staked (our 52.3% × 1.70 − 1).
Racing Montevideo vs Cerro Largo match preview
Racing Montevideo is favored to win against Cerro Largo with a probability of 53%, while the likelihood of a draw stands at 32% and Cerro Largo at 15%. The expected goals for Racing Montevideo are 1.26, compared to 0.54 for Cerro Largo, indicating a significant disparity in offensive output. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, occurring with a 20% chance.
In terms of recent form, Racing Montevideo has recorded a mixed performance with two wins, two losses, and a draw in their last five matches. Conversely, Cerro Largo has struggled, managing only one draw and four losses in their recent outings. The head-to-head record shows Racing Montevideo has been dominant, winning two of the last three encounters and drawing the other.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Racing Montevideo and Cerro Largo expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.14
Racing Montevideo and Cerro Largo attack and defence ratings
Racing Montevideo
Cerro Largo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Racing Montevideo vs Cerro Largo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Racing Montevideo | 52.3% | 1.91 | -0.9% | 1.70 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 63.9% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 58.6% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.9% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.5% | 1.98 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Racing Montevideo | 52.3% |
| Draw | 27.6% | |
| Cerro Largo | 20.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 63.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41.4% |
| No | 58.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 47.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Racing Montevideo win | 24.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.9% | |
| Loss | 50.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 14.8% |
| 1-1 | 13.7% | |
| 0-0 | 13.0% |
Racing Montevideo vs Cerro Largo stats
Racing Montevideo and Cerro Largo recent form
| Racing Montevideo |
DWLLLD |
| Cerro Largo |
WDLLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Racing Montevideo and Cerro Largo season so far
Racing Montevideo record
- They have won 15 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
Cerro Largo record
- They have won 8 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 33 matches.
Racing Montevideo vs Cerro Largo head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Racing Montevideo | Cerro Largo | Uruguay Primera División | 1-0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Cerro Largo | Racing Montevideo | Uruguay Primera División | 0-1 |
| 2025-04-28 | Racing Montevideo | Cerro Largo | Uruguay Primera División | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Racing Montevideo vs Cerro Largo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 53.3%, draw 26.6%, away 20.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 3.40 | 4.50 |