Danubio
vs
Club Nacional
Garuda Lions Prediction: Club Nacional
0 – 1 Predicted score · 16% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.20 vs 0.76.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Danubio vs Club Nacional overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Danubio vs Club Nacional
| Probability | Danubio | Draw | Club Nacional |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22.0% | 32.7% | 45.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 22.0% | 32.7% | 45.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Club Nacional
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.20 vs 0.76.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Danubio vs Club Nacional match preview
Danubio faces Club Nacional in the upcoming match, with probabilities indicating a 22% chance of a Danubio win, a 33% likelihood of a draw, and a 45% chance for Club Nacional to secure victory. The expected goals for Danubio stand at 0.76, while Club Nacional is projected at 1.20. The most likely scoreline according to the model is 0-1, occurring at a 16% probability.
In terms of recent form, Danubio's last six matches show a mixed record of L-W-L-W-L-D, whereas Club Nacional has been in strong form, winning five of their last six matches (L-W-W-W-W-W). The head-to-head results from the last four encounters favor Club Nacional, with two wins compared to Danubio's one win and one draw. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Danubio and Club Nacional expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.96
Danubio and Club Nacional attack and defence ratings
Danubio
Club Nacional
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Danubio vs Club Nacional markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Club Nacional | 45.3% | 2.21 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 68.8% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 61.6% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 78.0% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.7% | 1.83 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Danubio | 22.0% |
| Draw | 32.7% | |
| Club Nacional | 45.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 31.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 68.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38.4% |
| No | 61.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 54.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 67.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 78.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Club Nacional win | 20.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.6% | |
| Loss | 54.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 15.7% |
| 0-0 | 15.4% | |
| 1-1 | 14.1% |
Danubio vs Club Nacional stats
Danubio and Club Nacional recent form
| Danubio |
LWLWLD |
| Club Nacional |
LWWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Danubio and Club Nacional season so far
Danubio record
- They have won 6 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 15 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Club Nacional record
- They have won 18 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Danubio vs Club Nacional head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Danubio | Club Nacional | Uruguay Primera División | 0-0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Club Nacional | Danubio | Uruguay Primera División | 1-2 |
| 2025-06-29 | Club Nacional | Danubio | Uruguay Primera División | 3-2 |
| 2025-04-13 | Club Nacional | Danubio | Uruguay Primera División | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.