Club Nacional
vs
Liverpool Montevideo
Garuda Lions Prediction: Club Nacional
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Club Nacional vs Liverpool Montevideo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Club Nacional vs Liverpool Montevideo
| Probability | Club Nacional | Draw | Liverpool Montevideo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38.2% | 29.9% | 31.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 38.2% | 29.9% | 31.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Club Nacional
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Club Nacional vs Liverpool Montevideo match preview
Club Nacional and Liverpool Montevideo are set to clash in the Uruguay Primera División, with Club Nacional holding a slight edge in the probabilities at 37% for a win, compared to Liverpool Montevideo's 31%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of Club Nacional, with a 12% likelihood. Both teams have shown solid form recently, with Club Nacional recording four wins and two draws in their last six matches, while Liverpool Montevideo has three wins, two draws, and one loss in the same timeframe.
In terms of expected goals, Club Nacional is projected to score 1.14, while Liverpool Montevideo is expected to net 1.02. The probability of over 2.5 goals stands at 37%, and there is a 45% chance that both teams will score during the match. Historically, in their last two encounters, Club Nacional has one win and one draw against Liverpool Montevideo, who has yet to secure a victory in this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Club Nacional and Liverpool Montevideo expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.44
Club Nacional and Liverpool Montevideo attack and defence ratings
Club Nacional
Liverpool Montevideo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Club Nacional vs Liverpool Montevideo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Club Nacional | 38.2% | 2.62 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.0% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.8% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.1% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.8% | 1.62 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Club Nacional | 38.2% |
| Draw | 29.9% | |
| Liverpool Montevideo | 31.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 56.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.8% |
| No | 49.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Club Nacional win | 17.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.6% | |
| Loss | 61.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.2% |
| 0-0 | 10.0% | |
| 1-0 | 9.9% |
Club Nacional vs Liverpool Montevideo stats
Club Nacional and Liverpool Montevideo recent form
| Club Nacional |
WWWWWD |
| Liverpool Montevideo |
WDWWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Club Nacional and Liverpool Montevideo season so far
Club Nacional record
- They have won 17 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Liverpool Montevideo record
- They have won 13 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Club Nacional vs Liverpool Montevideo head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Liverpool Montevideo | Club Nacional | Uruguay Primera División | 1-3 |
| 2025-03-26 | Liverpool Montevideo | Club Nacional | Uruguay Primera División | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.