Liverpool Montevideo
vs
Juventud
Garuda Lions Prediction: Liverpool Montevideo
1 – 0 Predicted score · 19% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.03 vs 0.60.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Liverpool Montevideo is the favourite, not a value bet.
Liverpool Montevideo vs Juventud overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Liverpool Montevideo vs Juventud
| Probability | Liverpool Montevideo | Draw | Juventud |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.9% | 36.2% | 19.9% |
| Market | 44.9% | 27.7% | 27.4% |
| Final | 44.7% | 29.8% | 25.5% |
| Edge | -0.3% | +2.1% | -1.9% |
Why Liverpool Montevideo
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.03 vs 0.60.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.15, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.0% per unit staked (our 44.7% × 2.15 − 1).
Liverpool Montevideo vs Juventud match preview
Liverpool Montevideo hosts Juventud in a matchup where the home side has a 45% probability of winning, compared to Juventud's 25%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, with an expected goals tally of 1.03 for Liverpool Montevideo and 0.60 for Juventud. Recent form shows Liverpool Montevideo has been strong, with three wins and a draw in their last six matches, while Juventud has a mixed record of two wins, three draws, and a loss.
In their last two encounters, Liverpool Montevideo has yet to secure a victory against Juventud, with one draw and one loss. The probability of both teams scoring stands at 30%, and the likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 22%. With a confidence grade of C, this match presents an intriguing contest between the two sides.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Liverpool Montevideo and Juventud expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.62
Liverpool Montevideo and Juventud attack and defence ratings
Liverpool Montevideo
Juventud
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Liverpool Montevideo vs Juventud markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Liverpool Montevideo | 44.7% | 2.24 | -0.3% | 2.15 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 77.7% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 69.9% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.5% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.1% | 1.78 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Liverpool Montevideo | 44.7% |
| Draw | 29.8% | |
| Juventud | 25.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 22.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 77.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 30.1% |
| No | 69.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Liverpool Montevideo win | 18.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.9% | |
| Loss | 56.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 20.9% |
| 1-0 | 19.0% | |
| 1-1 | 13.3% |
Liverpool Montevideo vs Juventud stats
Liverpool Montevideo and Juventud recent form
| Liverpool Montevideo |
WWDWWD |
| Juventud |
DLWDDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Liverpool Montevideo and Juventud season so far
Liverpool Montevideo record
- They have won 14 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 15 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Juventud record
- They have won 10 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Liverpool Montevideo vs Juventud head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Juventud | Liverpool Montevideo | Uruguay Primera División | 1-1 |
| 2025-05-04 | Juventud | Liverpool Montevideo | Uruguay Primera División | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Liverpool Montevideo vs Juventud odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.9%, draw 27.7%, away 27.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.00 | 3.24 | 3.36 |
| Bet365 | 1.91 | 3.20 | 3.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.05 | 3.30 | 3.30 |
| Betano | 2.05 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 3.30 | 3.25 |
| Marathonbet | 1.98 | 3.24 | 3.28 |
| Pinnacle | 2.14 | 3.39 | 3.34 |
| SBO | 1.96 | 3.04 | 3.02 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 3.10 | 3.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .