Albion FC
vs
Deportivo Maldonado
Garuda Lions Prediction: Deportivo Maldonado
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.55 vs 1.23.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Deportivo Maldonado is the favourite, not a value bet.
Albion FC vs Deportivo Maldonado overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Albion FC vs Deportivo Maldonado
| Probability | Albion FC | Draw | Deportivo Maldonado |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29.1% | 27.4% | 43.4% |
| Market | 32.4% | 27.6% | 40.0% |
| Final | 31.6% | 27.6% | 40.8% |
| Edge | -0.8% | -0.1% | +0.9% |
Why Deportivo Maldonado
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.55 vs 1.23.
Best available price on the pick: 2.38, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.8% per unit staked (our 40.8% × 2.38 − 1).
Albion FC vs Deportivo Maldonado match preview
Albion FC faces Deportivo Maldonado in what promises to be an intriguing clash in the Uruguay Primera División. According to our model, Albion FC has a 32% chance of winning, while Deportivo Maldonado is favored at 41%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2 in favor of Deportivo Maldonado, with both teams expected to score in 57% of scenarios. Albion FC's recent form shows four wins followed by two losses, while Deportivo Maldonado has been more consistent, winning four of their last six matches.
In terms of expected goals, Albion FC is projected to score 1.23, compared to Deportivo Maldonado's 1.55. The head-to-head record indicates a slight edge for Albion FC, with one win and one draw in their last two encounters against Deportivo Maldonado, who has yet to secure a victory in this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Albion FC and Deportivo Maldonado expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.78
Albion FC and Deportivo Maldonado attack and defence ratings
Albion FC
Deportivo Maldonado
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Albion FC vs Deportivo Maldonado markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 40.8% | 2.45 | +0.9% | 2.38 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.5% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.9% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.4% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.6% | 1.77 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Albion FC | 31.6% |
| Draw | 27.6% | |
| Deportivo Maldonado | 40.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.9% |
| No | 43.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 59.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 68.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportivo Maldonado win | 22.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.0% | |
| Loss | 56.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.0% |
| 1-2 | 9.2% | |
| 0-1 | 8.4% |
Albion FC vs Deportivo Maldonado stats
Albion FC and Deportivo Maldonado recent form
| Albion FC |
WWWWLL |
| Deportivo Maldonado |
WLDWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Albion FC and Deportivo Maldonado season so far
Albion FC record
- They have won 12 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 9 of 10 penalties (90%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Deportivo Maldonado record
- They have won 17 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Albion FC vs Deportivo Maldonado head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Deportivo Maldonado | Albion FC | Uruguay Primera División | 1-1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Deportivo Maldonado | Albion FC | Uruguay Primera División | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Albion FC vs Deportivo Maldonado odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 32.4%, draw 27.6%, away 40.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.66 | 3.30 | 2.28 |
| Bet365 | 3.10 | 3.30 | 2.05 |
| Betano | 3.15 | 3.40 | 2.18 |
| Betfair | 2.90 | 3.40 | 2.15 |
| Marathonbet | 2.66 | 3.30 | 2.28 |
| Pinnacle | 2.81 | 3.51 | 2.38 |
| William Hill | 2.75 | 3.30 | 2.38 |