Progreso
vs
Defensor Sporting
Garuda Lions Prediction: Progreso
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.92 vs 1.07.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Progreso vs Defensor Sporting overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Progreso vs Defensor Sporting
| Probability | Progreso | Draw | Defensor Sporting |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56.2% | 24.1% | 19.8% |
| Market | 35.6% | 29.3% | 35.2% |
| Final | 40.7% | 28.0% | 31.3% |
| Edge | +5.1% | -1.3% | -3.8% |
Why Progreso
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.92 vs 1.07.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Progreso below our published probability: +5.1 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.70, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +9.9% per unit staked (our 40.7% × 2.70 − 1).
Progreso vs Defensor Sporting match preview
Progreso enters the match against Defensor Sporting with a strong probability of winning at 56%, while Defensor Sporting has a 20% chance. The model suggests a likely scoreline of 2-1 in favor of Progreso, with an expected goals tally of 1.92 for Progreso and 1.08 for Defensor Sporting. Additionally, there is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored and a 57% likelihood that both teams will find the net.
Recent form indicates that Progreso has been performing well, with three wins and a draw in their last six matches, while Defensor Sporting has struggled, managing only one win in their last six games. The head-to-head record from the last two encounters shows each team has one win, adding an interesting dynamic to this upcoming clash.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Progreso and Defensor Sporting expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.00
Progreso and Defensor Sporting attack and defence ratings
Progreso
Defensor Sporting
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Progreso vs Defensor Sporting markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Progreso | 40.7% | 2.46 | +5.1% | 2.70 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.6% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.3% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.0% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.8% | 2.28 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Progreso | 40.7% |
| Draw | 28.0% | |
| Defensor Sporting | 31.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.3% |
| No | 42.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Progreso win | 33.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.6% | |
| Loss | 43.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.3% |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | |
| 2-0 | 9.2% |
Progreso vs Defensor Sporting stats
Progreso and Defensor Sporting recent form
| Progreso |
WWDLWW |
| Defensor Sporting |
DLLLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Progreso and Defensor Sporting season so far
Progreso record
- They have won 9 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Defensor Sporting record
- They have won 8 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 33 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Progreso vs Defensor Sporting head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | Defensor Sporting | Progreso | Uruguay Primera División | 1-0 |
| 2025-04-20 | Defensor Sporting | Progreso | Uruguay Primera División | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Progreso vs Defensor Sporting odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 35.6%, draw 29.3%, away 35.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.47 | 3.08 | 2.58 |
| Bet365 | 2.55 | 3.10 | 2.45 |
| Betano | 2.70 | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| Betfair | 2.55 | 3.25 | 2.50 |
| Marathonbet | 2.47 | 3.08 | 2.58 |
| Pinnacle | 2.68 | 3.22 | 2.64 |
| William Hill | 2.62 | 3.00 | 2.62 |