Cerro Largo
vs
Progreso
Garuda Lions Prediction: Cerro Largo
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Cerro Largo is the favourite, not a value bet.
Cerro Largo vs Progreso overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cerro Largo vs Progreso
| Probability | Cerro Largo | Draw | Progreso |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.9% | 32.7% | 38.4% |
| Market | 50.7% | 26.6% | 22.7% |
| Final | 45.3% | 28.1% | 26.6% |
| Edge | -5.4% | +1.5% | +3.9% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.88, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -14.9% per unit staked (our 45.3% × 1.88 − 1).
Cerro Largo vs Progreso match preview
Cerro Largo faces Progreso in their upcoming match, with Cerro Largo holding a 45% probability of winning, while Progreso has a 27% chance. The most likely scoreline according to the model is 1-0, occurring at an 11% likelihood. Expected goals for Cerro Largo stand at 0.94, compared to Progreso's 1.13, indicating a slightly stronger offensive expectation for the visitors.
Recent form shows Cerro Largo struggling with three losses in their last five matches, while Progreso has been more consistent, securing three wins in the same timeframe. In their last ten encounters, Cerro Largo has dominated with eight victories, one draw, and only one loss to Progreso. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Cerro Largo and Progreso expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.07
Cerro Largo and Progreso attack and defence ratings
Cerro Largo
Progreso
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Cerro Largo vs Progreso markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cerro Largo | 45.3% | 2.21 | -5.4% | 1.88 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 65.7% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 57.3% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.4% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 71.1% | 1.41 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cerro Largo | 45.3% |
| Draw | 28.1% | |
| Progreso | 26.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 65.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42.7% |
| No | 57.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cerro Largo win | 10.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.1% | |
| Loss | 71.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.8% |
| 0-0 | 13.9% | |
| 0-1 | 12.9% |
Cerro Largo vs Progreso stats
Cerro Largo and Progreso recent form
| Cerro Largo |
LWDLLL |
| Progreso |
LWWDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cerro Largo and Progreso season so far
Cerro Largo record
- They have won 9 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 35 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Progreso record
- They have won 10 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 14 of 35 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cerro Largo vs Progreso head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Progreso | Cerro Largo | Uruguay Primera División | 0-1 |
| 2025-08-09 | Progreso | Cerro Largo | Primera División - Clausura | 1-2 |
| 2025-02-07 | Cerro Largo | Progreso | Uruguay Primera División | 4-1 |
| 2024-11-30 | Cerro Largo | Progreso | Primera División - Clausura | 2-1 |
| 2024-06-04 | Progreso | Cerro Largo | Primera División - Apertura | 0-1 |
| 2021-10-17 | Cerro Largo | Progreso | Primera División - Clausura | 1-0 |
| 2021-06-19 | Progreso | Cerro Largo | Primera División - Apertura | 0-0 |
| 2021-03-14 | Progreso | Cerro Largo | Primera División - Clausura | 1-0 |
| 2020-09-12 | Progreso | Cerro Largo | Primera División - Apertura | 1-2 |
| 2019-11-21 | Progreso | Cerro Largo | Primera División - Clausura | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Cerro Largo vs Progreso odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 50.7%, draw 26.6%, away 22.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.77 | 3.42 | 4.01 |
| Bet365 | 1.80 | 3.30 | 4.10 |
| BetVictor | 1.80 | 3.40 | 4.10 |
| Betano | 1.78 | 3.45 | 4.00 |
| Betfair | 1.80 | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| Dafabet | 1.88 | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.75 | 3.42 | 3.92 |
| Pinnacle | 1.75 | 3.64 | 4.01 |
| SBO | 1.79 | 3.04 | 3.57 |
| William Hill | 1.83 | 3.40 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .