Atletico Torque
vs
Racing Montevideo
Garuda Lions Prediction: Atletico Torque
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.63 vs 1.29.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Atletico Torque is the favourite, not a value bet.
Atletico Torque vs Racing Montevideo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico Torque vs Racing Montevideo
| Probability | Atletico Torque | Draw | Racing Montevideo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.1% | 26.6% | 29.3% |
| Market | 50.0% | 26.3% | 23.7% |
| Final | 48.5% | 26.3% | 25.1% |
| Edge | -1.5% | +0.1% | +1.4% |
Why Atletico Torque
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.63 vs 1.29.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.92, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.8% per unit staked (our 48.5% × 1.92 − 1).
Atletico Torque vs Racing Montevideo match preview
Atletico Torque hosts Racing Montevideo in a matchup where the probabilities suggest a competitive encounter. Atletico Torque has a 46% chance of winning, while both a draw and a Racing Montevideo victory sit at 27%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1 in favor of Atletico Torque, with an expected goals tally of 1.63 for them and 1.29 for Racing Montevideo.
In terms of recent form, Atletico Torque has shown resilience with three wins in their last six matches, while Racing Montevideo has struggled, recording only one win in their last six outings. The head-to-head record indicates a slight edge for Racing Montevideo, with one win and two draws in their last three encounters. The model also suggests a 56% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Atletico Torque and Racing Montevideo expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.92
Atletico Torque and Racing Montevideo attack and defence ratings
Atletico Torque
Racing Montevideo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Atletico Torque vs Racing Montevideo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Torque | 48.5% | 2.06 | -1.5% | 1.92 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.9% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.5% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.9% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.9% | 1.79 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Torque | 48.5% |
| Draw | 26.3% | |
| Racing Montevideo | 25.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.5% |
| No | 40.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Torque win | 23.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.7% | |
| Loss | 55.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.5% |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | |
| 1-0 | 7.6% |
Atletico Torque vs Racing Montevideo stats
Atletico Torque and Racing Montevideo recent form
| Atletico Torque |
WWWLLW |
| Racing Montevideo |
WDWLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atletico Torque and Racing Montevideo season so far
Atletico Torque record
- They have won 19 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Racing Montevideo record
- They have won 16 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
Atletico Torque vs Racing Montevideo head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Racing Montevideo | Atletico Torque | Uruguay Primera División | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-24 | Atletico Torque | Racing Montevideo | Primera División - Clausura | 4-0 |
| 2025-06-29 | Racing Montevideo | Atletico Torque | Uruguay Primera División | 1-1 |
| 2025-02-21 | Racing Montevideo | Atletico Torque | Uruguay Primera División | 3-1 |
| 2023-11-14 | Racing Montevideo | Atletico Torque | Primera División - Clausura | 1-0 |
| 2023-04-08 | Atletico Torque | Racing Montevideo | Primera División - Apertura | 0-2 |
| 2018-08-11 | Racing Montevideo | Atletico Torque | Primera División - Clausura | 0-1 |
| 2018-02-25 | Atletico Torque | Racing Montevideo | Primera División - Apertura | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Atletico Torque vs Racing Montevideo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 50.0%, draw 26.3%, away 23.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.84 | 3.40 | 3.72 |
| Bet365 | 1.80 | 3.50 | 3.70 |
| BetVictor | 1.80 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| Betano | 1.83 | 3.45 | 3.80 |
| Betfair | 1.87 | 3.60 | 3.90 |
| Dafabet | 1.92 | 3.65 | 3.90 |
| Marathonbet | 1.82 | 3.40 | 3.64 |
| Pinnacle | 1.82 | 3.58 | 4.07 |
| SBO | 1.79 | 3.08 | 3.52 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.40 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .