Deportivo Maldonado
vs
Cerro
Garuda Lions Prediction: Deportivo Maldonado
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 0.77.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Deportivo Maldonado is the favourite, not a value bet.
Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro
| Probability | Deportivo Maldonado | Draw | Cerro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59.7% | 25.4% | 15.0% |
| Market | 57.9% | 24.4% | 17.8% |
| Final | 58.3% | 24.6% | 17.1% |
| Edge | +0.4% | +0.2% | -0.7% |
Why Deportivo Maldonado
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 0.77.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.63, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.9% per unit staked (our 58.3% × 1.63 − 1).
Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro match preview
Deportivo Maldonado enters this match with a 58% probability of winning, while Cerro has a 17% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Deportivo Maldonado, occurring with a 13% likelihood. The expected goals for Deportivo Maldonado stand at 1.74, compared to Cerro's 0.77, suggesting a significant disparity in offensive output.
In terms of recent form, Deportivo Maldonado has recorded a mix of results with two wins in their last five matches, while Cerro has struggled, managing only one win in the same period. The head-to-head record favors Deportivo Maldonado, who won their last encounter. Both teams have a 45% chance of scoring, and there is a 46% probability of more than 2.5 goals being scored in the match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Deportivo Maldonado and Cerro expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.51
Deportivo Maldonado and Cerro attack and defence ratings
Deportivo Maldonado
Cerro
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 58.3% | 1.71 | +0.4% | 1.63 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.1% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.8% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.9% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.3% | 2.48 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 58.3% |
| Draw | 24.6% | |
| Cerro | 17.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.2% |
| No | 54.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 41.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportivo Maldonado win | 34.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.9% | |
| Loss | 40.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 13.1% |
| 2-0 | 12.4% | |
| 1-1 | 11.9% |
Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro stats
Deportivo Maldonado and Cerro recent form
| Deportivo Maldonado |
DWLDWW |
| Cerro |
LLDWLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Deportivo Maldonado and Cerro season so far
Deportivo Maldonado record
- They have won 18 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 15 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
Cerro record
- They have won 10 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 35 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | Cerro | Deportivo Maldonado | Copa Uruguay | 1-2 |
| 2026-05-02 | Cerro | Deportivo Maldonado | Uruguay Primera División | 0-1 |
| 2024-11-08 | Cerro | Deportivo Maldonado | Primera División - Clausura | 0-0 |
| 2024-05-05 | Deportivo Maldonado | Cerro | Primera División - Apertura | 3-0 |
| 2023-09-03 | Deportivo Maldonado | Cerro | Primera División - Clausura | 2-1 |
| 2023-07-17 | Deportivo Maldonado | Cerro | Primera División - Apertura | 1-2 |
| 2023-02-18 | Cerro | Deportivo Maldonado | Primera División - Apertura | 0-0 |
| 2021-03-13 | Cerro | Deportivo Maldonado | Primera División - Clausura | 2-3 |
| 2020-09-13 | Deportivo Maldonado | Cerro | Primera División - Apertura | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 57.9%, draw 24.4%, away 17.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.55 | 3.70 | 5.25 |
| Bet365 | 1.57 | 3.80 | 4.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.57 | 3.75 | 5.25 |
| Betano | 1.60 | 3.65 | 5.10 |
| Betfair | 1.62 | 3.90 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.63 | 4.10 | 5.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.53 | 3.70 | 5.15 |
| Pinnacle | 1.58 | 3.91 | 5.32 |
| William Hill | 1.60 | 3.70 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .