Cerro
vs
Central Espanol
Garuda Lions Prediction: Cerro
1 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 0.66.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Cerro vs Central Espanol overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cerro vs Central Espanol
| Probability | Cerro | Draw | Central Espanol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62.7% | 24.8% | 12.5% |
| Market | 38.1% | 30.4% | 31.5% |
| Final | 44.2% | 29.0% | 26.8% |
| Edge | +6.2% | -1.4% | -4.7% |
Why Cerro
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 0.66.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Cerro below our published probability: +6.2 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.48, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +9.6% per unit staked (our 44.2% × 2.48 − 1).
Cerro vs Central Espanol match preview
Cerro enters this matchup against Central Espanol with a solid probability of winning at 65%, while Central Espanol trails significantly at 11%. The expected goals for Cerro stand at 1.74 compared to just 0.58 for Central Espanol, indicating a pronounced advantage for the home side. Recent form shows Cerro with mixed results, including two wins in their last five matches, while Central Espanol is struggling with six consecutive losses.
In their last two encounters, the teams are evenly matched with one win each. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Cerro, occurring 16% of the time. Additionally, there is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals, and both teams scoring stands at 37%, reflecting the potential for a low-scoring affair.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Cerro and Central Espanol expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.41
Cerro and Central Espanol attack and defence ratings
Cerro
Central Espanol
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Cerro vs Central Espanol markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cerro | 44.2% | 2.26 | +6.2% | 2.48 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.7% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.0% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.2% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 37.3% | 2.68 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cerro | 44.2% |
| Draw | 29.0% | |
| Central Espanol | 26.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 56.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41.0% |
| No | 59.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cerro win | 37.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.7% | |
| Loss | 37.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 14.7% |
| 2-0 | 13.8% | |
| 1-1 | 11.4% |
Cerro vs Central Espanol stats
Cerro and Central Espanol recent form
| Cerro |
LDWLDL |
| Central Espanol |
LLLLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cerro and Central Espanol season so far
Cerro record
- They have won 10 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 33 matches.
Central Espanol record
- They have won 10 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cerro vs Central Espanol head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Cerro | Central Espanol | Uruguay Primera División | 1-0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Central Espanol | Cerro | Uruguay Primera División | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Cerro vs Central Espanol odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 38.1%, draw 30.4%, away 31.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.40 | 2.92 | 2.89 |
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.00 | 2.90 |
| Betano | 2.42 | 3.05 | 3.05 |
| Betfair | 2.38 | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| Marathonbet | 2.38 | 2.92 | 2.82 |
| Pinnacle | 2.48 | 3.04 | 3.05 |
| William Hill | 2.45 | 2.88 | 3.00 |