Danubio
vs
Liverpool Montevideo
Garuda Lions Prediction: Liverpool Montevideo
0 – 1 Predicted score · 19% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.36 vs 0.56.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Danubio vs Liverpool Montevideo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Danubio vs Liverpool Montevideo
| Probability | Danubio | Draw | Liverpool Montevideo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 14.2% | 30.3% | 55.6% |
| Market | 25.4% | 28.8% | 45.8% |
| Final | 22.6% | 29.2% | 48.2% |
| Edge | -2.8% | +0.4% | +2.4% |
Why Liverpool Montevideo
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.36 vs 0.56.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Liverpool Montevideo below our published probability: +2.4 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.05, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.1% per unit staked (our 48.2% × 2.05 − 1).
Danubio vs Liverpool Montevideo match preview
Danubio faces Liverpool Montevideo in an upcoming match in the Uruguay Primera División. According to our model, Danubio has a 21% chance of winning, while Liverpool Montevideo is favored with a 51% probability. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-1, with an expected goals tally of 0.56 for Danubio and 1.36 for Liverpool Montevideo. Recent form shows Danubio struggling with two losses in their last three matches, while Liverpool Montevideo is in strong form, having won four of their last five games.
In their last two encounters, Danubio has not secured a win, with one draw and one victory for Liverpool Montevideo. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals stands at 30%, and both teams to score is estimated at 33%. With a confidence grade of C, this match presents an intriguing contest between the two sides.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Danubio and Liverpool Montevideo expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.93
Danubio and Liverpool Montevideo attack and defence ratings
Danubio
Liverpool Montevideo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Danubio vs Liverpool Montevideo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Liverpool Montevideo | 48.2% | 2.07 | +2.4% | 2.05 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 69.7% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 66.9% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 77.4% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.4% | 2.25 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Danubio | 22.6% |
| Draw | 29.2% | |
| Liverpool Montevideo | 48.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 30.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 69.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 33.1% |
| No | 66.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 51.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 77.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Liverpool Montevideo win | 28.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27.4% | |
| Loss | 44.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 18.8% |
| 0-0 | 15.7% | |
| 0-2 | 13.6% |
Danubio vs Liverpool Montevideo stats
Danubio and Liverpool Montevideo recent form
| Danubio |
LLWLWL |
| Liverpool Montevideo |
WWWDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Danubio and Liverpool Montevideo season so far
Danubio record
- They have won 6 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 15 of 34 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Liverpool Montevideo record
- They have won 15 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 16 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Danubio vs Liverpool Montevideo head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Liverpool Montevideo | Danubio | Uruguay Primera División | 3-0 |
| 2025-02-01 | Danubio | Liverpool Montevideo | Uruguay Primera División | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Danubio vs Liverpool Montevideo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 25.4%, draw 28.8%, away 45.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.67 | 3.18 | 1.93 |
| Bet365 | 3.40 | 3.20 | 2.00 |
| Betano | 3.65 | 3.15 | 1.95 |
| Betfair | 3.50 | 3.30 | 2.00 |
| Marathonbet | 3.58 | 3.18 | 1.91 |
| Pinnacle | 3.63 | 3.29 | 2.03 |
| William Hill | 3.60 | 3.10 | 2.05 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .