Defensor Sporting
vs
Penarol
Garuda Lions Prediction: Penarol
0 – 1 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.52 vs 1.04.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Penarol is the favourite, not a value bet.
Defensor Sporting vs Penarol overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Defensor Sporting vs Penarol
| Probability | Defensor Sporting | Draw | Penarol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24.7% | 28.2% | 47.1% |
| Market | 19.0% | 25.8% | 55.3% |
| Final | 20.4% | 26.4% | 53.2% |
| Edge | +1.4% | +0.6% | -2.0% |
Why Penarol
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.52 vs 1.04.
Best available price on the pick: 1.67, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.1% per unit staked (our 53.2% × 1.67 − 1).
Defensor Sporting vs Penarol match preview
Defensor Sporting faces Penarol in the upcoming match, with probabilities indicating a 21% chance of a Defensor victory, a 26% likelihood of a draw, and a 53% chance for Penarol to win. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 0-1, occurring with an 11% probability. Defensor Sporting's expected goals stand at 1.04, while Penarol's expected goals are higher at 1.52.
In terms of recent form, Defensor Sporting has recorded one win, two draws, and three losses, while Penarol has managed two wins and four draws in their last six matches. The head-to-head record shows Defensor Sporting with no wins, one draw, and three losses against Penarol in their last four encounters. The confidence grade for this matchup is rated as C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Defensor Sporting and Penarol expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.56
Defensor Sporting and Penarol attack and defence ratings
Defensor Sporting
Penarol
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Defensor Sporting vs Penarol markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Penarol | 53.2% | 1.88 | -2.0% | 1.67 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.9% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.7% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 79.6% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.9% | 1.89 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Defensor Sporting | 20.4% |
| Draw | 26.4% | |
| Penarol | 53.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.7% |
| No | 48.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 46.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 79.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Penarol win | 24.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.6% | |
| Loss | 52.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.4% |
| 0-1 | 10.5% | |
| 1-2 | 9.3% |
Defensor Sporting vs Penarol stats
Defensor Sporting and Penarol recent form
| Defensor Sporting |
WDLLLW |
| Penarol |
DDLDWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Defensor Sporting and Penarol season so far
Defensor Sporting record
- They have won 8 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 34 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Penarol record
- They have won 20 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Defensor Sporting vs Penarol head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Defensor Sporting | Penarol | Uruguay Primera División | 0-2 |
| 2026-05-04 | Penarol | Defensor Sporting | Uruguay Primera División | 1-1 |
| 2025-06-07 | Penarol | Defensor Sporting | Uruguay Primera División | 3-0 |
| 2025-05-03 | Defensor Sporting | Penarol | Uruguay Primera División | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Defensor Sporting vs Penarol odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 19.0%, draw 25.8%, away 55.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 5.06 | 3.54 | 1.60 |
| Bet365 | 4.50 | 3.50 | 1.65 |
| Betano | 4.60 | 3.60 | 1.65 |
| Betfair | 4.75 | 3.80 | 1.67 |
| Marathonbet | 4.95 | 3.54 | 1.58 |
| Pinnacle | 4.88 | 3.71 | 1.66 |
| William Hill | 4.80 | 3.50 | 1.67 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .