Wanderers
vs
Progreso
Garuda Lions Prediction: Wanderers
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Wanderers is the favourite, not a value bet.
Wanderers vs Progreso overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Wanderers vs Progreso
| Probability | Wanderers | Draw | Progreso |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34.9% | 27.8% | 37.3% |
| Market | 43.5% | 28.2% | 28.4% |
| Final | 41.3% | 28.1% | 30.6% |
| Edge | -2.1% | -0.1% | +2.2% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.20, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.1% per unit staked (our 41.3% × 2.20 − 1).
Wanderers vs Progreso match preview
Wanderers will face Progreso in an intriguing matchup, with our model assigning a 42% probability of a Wanderers victory, while Progreso stands at 30%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Wanderers, occurring with an 8% likelihood. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Wanderers recording two losses, a win, and two draws in their last five matches, while Progreso has alternated between wins and losses, achieving three wins and two losses in their recent outings.
In terms of expected goals, Wanderers are projected to score 1.36, while Progreso is slightly ahead at 1.41. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match is estimated at 52%, and both teams scoring is forecasted at 57%. The last three encounters between these teams have resulted in one win for each side and one draw, indicating a competitive fixture ahead.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Wanderers and Progreso expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.77
Wanderers and Progreso attack and defence ratings
Wanderers
Progreso
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Wanderers vs Progreso markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Wanderers | 41.3% | 2.42 | -2.1% | 2.20 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.4% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.4% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.9% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 65.1% | 1.54 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Wanderers | 41.3% |
| Draw | 28.1% | |
| Progreso | 30.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.4% |
| No | 42.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Wanderers win | 16.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.5% | |
| Loss | 65.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.2% |
| 1-2 | 8.5% | |
| 2-1 | 8.2% |
Wanderers vs Progreso stats
Wanderers and Progreso recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Wanderers and Progreso season so far
Wanderers record
- They have won 14 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Progreso record
- They have won 8 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Wanderers vs Progreso head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Wanderers | Progreso | Uruguay Primera División | 2-0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Progreso | Wanderers | Uruguay Primera División | 2-1 |
| 2025-03-27 | Wanderers | Progreso | Uruguay Primera División | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Wanderers vs Progreso odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 43.5%, draw 28.2%, away 28.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.05 | 3.24 | 3.24 |
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 3.10 | 3.10 |
| BetVictor | 2.10 | 3.25 | 3.20 |
| Betano | 2.12 | 3.20 | 3.15 |
| Betfair | 2.05 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| Dafabet | 2.20 | 3.35 | 3.35 |
| Marathonbet | 2.03 | 3.24 | 3.16 |
| Pinnacle | 2.14 | 3.37 | 3.33 |
| SBO | 2.01 | 3.01 | 2.94 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.20 | 3.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .