Uruguay Primera División
·
Full time
·Clausura - 11
Progreso
vs
Juventud
2 – 0 Full time
| 13′ | Ramiro Cristóbal | ||
| 58′ | Maximiliano JuambeltzMatteo copelotti | ||
| 58′ | Ramiro Cristóbalgary silva | ||
| 60′ | Ayrton Cougo | ||
| 61′ | Agustin Nicolas Alaniz Sanifacundo dominguez | ||
| 61′ | Bruno LarreguiGastón Pereiro | ||
| 67′ | Emiliano AlvarezGastón Silva | ||
| 67′ | Ayrton CougoFacundo De Leon | ||
| 74′ | Mirko Diazbruno arady | ||
| 74′ | Rodrigo Sebastian·Chagas DiazEmanuel Cecchini | ||
| 79′ | Ramiro Miguel Peraltafacundo perez | ||
| 81′ | gary silva | ||
| 84′ | Agustín OcampoAgustin Codagnone | ||
| 87′ | gary silva | ||
| 90′ | nahuel lopez |
Progreso
28%
Draw
29%
Juventud
44%
Match stats
| 8 | Shots | 10 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 38 | Possession % | 62 |
| 4 | Corners | 10 |
Progreso vs Juventud overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Progreso vs Juventud
| Probability | Progreso | Draw | Juventud |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24.2% | 33.0% | 42.9% |
| Market | 29.0% | 27.3% | 43.7% |
| Final | 27.8% | 28.7% | 43.5% |
| Edge | -4.8% | +5.7% | -0.9% |
Why Juventud
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.17 vs 0.81.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
85%
2+ goals
60%
3+ goals
32%
No goals
15%
Progreso and Juventud expected goals
Progreso
0.81
Juventud
1.17
Total expected goals: 1.98
Progreso and Juventud attack and defence ratings
Progreso
Attack
0.97 -3%
Defence
1.12 +12%
Juventud
Attack
0.97 -3%
Defence
0.64 -36%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Progreso vs Juventud: result vs prediction
Progreso 2 – 0 Juventud
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Clausura - 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Progreso vs Juventud markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Juventud | 43.5% | 2.30 | -0.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 68.2% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 60.4% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 72.2% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.1% | 1.75 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Progreso | 27.8% |
| Draw | 28.7% | |
| Juventud | 43.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 31.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 68.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39.6% |
| No | 60.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 56.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 72.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Juventud win | 19.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.8% | |
| Loss | 57.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 15.1% |
| 0-1 | 14.8% | |
| 1-1 | 14.4% |
Progreso vs Juventud stats
Progreso and Juventud recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Progreso and Juventud going into this match
Progreso record
- They have won 8 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Juventud record
- They have won 10 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Progreso vs Juventud head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
3Progreso wins
2Draws
5Juventud wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Juventud | Progreso | Uruguay Primera División | 2-0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Juventud | Progreso | Uruguay Primera División | 1-0 |
| 2026-01-19 | Juventud | Progreso | Copa De La Liga Auf | 0-1 |
| 2025-11-09 | Juventud | Progreso | Primera División - Clausura | 1-1 |
| 2025-06-29 | Juventud | Progreso | Uruguay Primera División | 2-0 |
| 2025-05-18 | Progreso | Juventud | Uruguay Primera División | 1-2 |
| 2023-11-18 | Progreso | Juventud | Segunda División | 2-1 |
| 2023-07-07 | Juventud | Progreso | Segunda División | 1-1 |
| 2023-04-29 | Juventud | Progreso | Segunda División | 1-5 |
| 2022-08-06 | Progreso | Juventud | Segunda División | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Progreso vs Juventud odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 28.8%, draw 27.4%, away 43.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.09 | 3.34 | 2.07 |
| Bet365 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 2.00 |
| BetVictor | 3.20 | 3.40 | 2.15 |
| Betano | 3.15 | 3.25 | 2.10 |
| Betfair | 3.30 | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| Dafabet | 3.35 | 3.50 | 2.15 |
| Marathonbet | 3.02 | 3.34 | 2.05 |
| Pinnacle | 3.28 | 3.60 | 2.14 |
| SBO | 2.93 | 3.02 | 2.01 |
| William Hill | 3.10 | 3.30 | 2.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
3.15 ▼ -0.05
X
3.34 —
2
2.08 ▲ +0.02
9 snapshots recorded, from .