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Uruguay Primera División · Full time ·Clausura - 11

Boston River vs Defensor Sporting

1 – 0 Full time

Estadio Campeones Olimpicos, FloridaReferee: Bruno Sacarelo Roig

Boston River 39%
Draw 29%
Defensor Sporting 33%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Boston River vs Defensor Sporting overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Boston River vs Defensor Sporting

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityBoston RiverDrawDefensor Sporting
Model48.5%26.1%25.4%
Market35.2%29.4%35.4%
Final38.5%28.6%32.9%
Edge+13.3%-3.4%-10.0%

Confidence: Low

Why Boston River

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.72 vs 1.19.
  • The market prices Boston River below the model: +13.3 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Boston River ↓ / Defensor Sport → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 1 8% 12% 7% 2 8% 10% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 80%
3+ goals 55%
No goals 7%

Boston River and Defensor Sporting expected goals

Boston River 1.72
Defensor Sporting 1.19

Total expected goals: 2.90

Boston River and Defensor Sporting attack and defence ratings

Boston River

Attack 0.96 -4%
Defence 1.07 +7%

Defensor Sporting

Attack 1.04 +4%
Defence 1.38 +38%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Boston River vs Defensor Sporting: result vs prediction

Boston River 1 – 0 Defensor Sporting

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Clausura - 11 fixtures

Uruguay Primera División

Before and after this match

Boston River vs Defensor Sporting markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Boston River 38.5% 2.59 +13.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 55.5% 1.80 — —
Both teams to score Yes 58.1% 1.72 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 71.4% 1.40 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 51.3% 1.95 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Boston River38.5%
Draw28.6%
Defensor Sporting32.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.555.5%
Under 2.544.5%
Both teams to scoreYes58.1%
No41.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)67.1%
12 (either side)71.4%
X2 (draw or away)61.5%
Handicap -1Boston River win26.9%
Push (exactly one goal)21.8%
Loss51.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.3%
2-19.6%
1-08.3%

Boston River vs Defensor Sporting stats

Boston River and Defensor Sporting recent form

newest first
Boston River WDLLLL
Defensor Sporting LLWLWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Boston River and Defensor Sporting going into this match

league record before kick-off

Boston River record

  • They have won 9 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 32 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 14 of 32 matches.
  • 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Defensor Sporting record

  • They have won 8 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 32 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 32 matches.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Boston River vs Defensor Sporting head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Boston River wins 2Draws 5Defensor Sporting wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-06-07Defensor SportingBoston RiverUruguay Primera División1-1
2026-04-11Defensor SportingBoston RiverUruguay Primera División2-0
2025-08-02Boston RiverDefensor SportingPrimera División - Clausura4-0
2025-02-01Defensor SportingBoston RiverUruguay Primera División2-0
2024-11-22Boston RiverDefensor SportingCopa Uruguay0-1
2024-10-12Defensor SportingBoston RiverPrimera División - Clausura1-2
2024-04-06Boston RiverDefensor SportingPrimera División - Apertura2-2
2023-11-20Defensor SportingBoston RiverPrimera División - Clausura2-0
2023-07-09Boston RiverDefensor SportingPrimera División - Apertura0-1
2023-04-16Boston RiverDefensor SportingPrimera División - Apertura1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Boston River vs Defensor Sporting odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 35.8%, draw 29.3%, away 34.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.54 3.05 2.52
Bet365 2.50 3.10 2.50
BetVictor 2.60 3.20 2.60
Betano 2.52 3.10 2.60
Betfair 2.50 3.20 2.63
Dafabet 2.60 3.30 2.75
Marathonbet 2.54 3.05 2.52
Pinnacle 2.76 3.13 2.74
SBO 2.39 2.87 2.47
William Hill 2.62 2.90 2.62

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.57 ▲ +0.02
X 3.08 ▲ +0.03
2 2.56 ▼ -0.02

13 snapshots recorded, from .