Defensor Sporting
vs
Cerro
Garuda Lions Prediction: Defensor Sporting
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Defensor Sporting vs Cerro overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Defensor Sporting vs Cerro
| Probability | Defensor Sporting | Draw | Cerro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.4% | 30.5% | 32.1% |
| Market | 51.6% | 27.6% | 20.9% |
| Final | 48.0% | 28.3% | 23.7% |
| Edge | -14.2% | +2.9% | +11.3% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.85, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Defensor Sporting vs Cerro match preview
Defensor Sporting is set to face Cerro in the Uruguay Primera División, with kickoff scheduled for October 10, 2026. The model indicates a 47% probability of a Defensor Sporting victory, a 29% chance of a draw, and a 24% likelihood of a Cerro win. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Defensor Sporting, with an expected goals tally of 1.23 for them and 1.13 for Cerro.
Recent form shows Defensor Sporting with a record of L-W-L-W-D-L, while Cerro has L-D-L-W-W-D. In their last four encounters, Defensor Sporting has won three times, with Cerro securing one victory and no draws. The probability for over 2.5 goals stands at 42%, and there is a 49% chance that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Defensor Sporting and Cerro expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.36
Defensor Sporting and Cerro attack and defence ratings
Defensor Sporting
Cerro
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Defensor Sporting vs Cerro markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Defensor Sporting | 48.0% | 2.08 | -14.2% | 1.85 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58.0% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.8% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.3% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.6% | 1.60 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Defensor Sporting | 48.0% |
| Draw | 28.3% | |
| Cerro | 23.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 58.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.2% |
| No | 50.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Defensor Sporting win | 16.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.5% | |
| Loss | 62.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.4% |
| 0-0 | 10.8% | |
| 1-0 | 10.3% |
Defensor Sporting vs Cerro stats
Defensor Sporting and Cerro recent form
| Defensor Sporting |
LWLWDL |
| Cerro |
LDLWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Defensor Sporting and Cerro season so far
Defensor Sporting record
- They have won 8 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 31 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cerro record
- They have won 9 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 31 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Defensor Sporting vs Cerro head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | Defensor Sporting | Cerro | Uruguay Primera División | 2-1 |
| 2026-04-05 | Cerro | Defensor Sporting | Uruguay Primera División | 1-0 |
| 2025-10-11 | Cerro | Defensor Sporting | Primera División - Clausura | 1-0 |
| 2025-06-22 | Defensor Sporting | Cerro | Uruguay Primera División | 2-1 |
| 2025-04-14 | Defensor Sporting | Cerro | Uruguay Primera División | 3-2 |
| 2024-09-07 | Cerro | Defensor Sporting | Primera División - Clausura | 1-1 |
| 2024-02-25 | Defensor Sporting | Cerro | Primera División - Apertura | 5-0 |
| 2023-11-15 | Cerro | Defensor Sporting | Primera División - Clausura | 1-1 |
| 2023-04-08 | Defensor Sporting | Cerro | Primera División - Apertura | 1-1 |
| 2021-12-04 | Defensor Sporting | Cerro | Segunda División | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Defensor Sporting vs Cerro odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 51.6%, draw 27.6%, away 20.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.74 | 3.30 | 4.40 |
| Bet365 | 1.73 | 3.20 | 4.33 |
| BetVictor | 1.75 | 3.30 | 4.50 |
| Betano | 1.78 | 3.25 | 4.30 |
| Betfair | 1.75 | 3.30 | 4.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.85 | 3.45 | 4.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.72 | 3.30 | 4.30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.78 | 3.56 | 4.48 |
| SBO | 1.79 | 2.93 | 3.74 |
| William Hill | 1.80 | 3.30 | 4.33 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .