Uruguay Primera División · 2026-10-10T21:30:00Z UTC Full time ·Clausura - 10

Penarol vs Progreso

1 – 1 Full time

5′			Marco Antonio Saraviahernan carroso
26′			nahuel lopez
46′			Roberto FernándezAbel Hernández
46′			nahuel herreraIgnacio alegre
58′			Cristian Jaime
61′			leandro umpierrezeduardo darias
70′			Ayrton CougoGastón Silva
70′			Maximiliano JuambeltzMatteo copelotti
71′			Thiago EspinosaLucas Hernández
76′			eduardo darias
78′			Cristian JaimeFranco González
83′			Agustín OcampoSantino Bruschi
83′			Facundo De LeonAgustin Codagnone
90′			Abel Hernández

Estadio Centenario, MontevideoReferee: Mathias De Armas

Penarol

68%

Draw

20%

Progreso

12%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

22	Shots	10
6	Shots on target	6
61	Possession %	39
4	Corners	2

Penarol vs Progreso overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Penarol vs Progreso

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Penarol	Draw	Progreso
Model	70.5%	20.0%	9.5%
Market	67.1%	20.6%	12.3%
Final	67.9%	20.5%	11.6%
Edge	+0.9%	-0.2%	-0.7%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Penarol

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.14 vs 0.68.
Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

93%

2+ goals

78%

3+ goals

53%

No goals

Penarol and Progreso expected goals

Penarol

2.14

Progreso

0.68

Total expected goals: 2.82

Penarol and Progreso attack and defence ratings

Penarol

Attack

1.41 +41%

Defence

0.64 -36%

Progreso

Attack

0.98 -2%

Defence

1.16 +16%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Penarol vs Progreso: result vs prediction

Penarol 1 – 1 Progreso

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick	✗ Incorrect

Other Clausura - 10 fixtures

Uruguay Primera División

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Defensor Sporting vs Cerro · 2026-10-10
Wanderers v Boston River — match page · 2026-10-10
Juventud v Racing Montevideo — match page · 2026-10-11
Cerro Largo vs Albion FC — team news & stats · 2026-10-11
Central Espanol vs Club Nacional · 2026-10-11

Before and after this match

Penarol, previous: Racing Montevideo vs Penarol: odds and pick
Penarol, next: Liverpool Montevideo vs Penarol prediction
Progreso, previous: Liverpool Montevideo – Progreso, 2026-10-03
Progreso, next: Progreso vs Juventud: odds and pick

Penarol vs Progreso markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Penarol	67.9%	1.47	+0.9%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	53.6%	1.87	—	—
Both teams to score	No	55.8%	1.79	—	—
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	88.4%	1.13	—	—
Handicap -1	Penarol win	46.6%	2.14	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Penarol	67.9%
	Draw	20.5%
	Progreso	11.6%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	53.6%
	Under 2.5	46.4%
Both teams to score	Yes	44.2%
	No	55.8%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	88.4%
	12 (either side)	79.5%
	X2 (draw or away)	32.1%
Handicap -1	Penarol win	46.6%
	Push (exactly one goal)	23.7%
	Loss	29.7%
Correct score (top 3)	2-0	13.7%
	1-0	11.9%
	3-0	9.8%

Penarol vs Progreso stats

Penarol and Progreso recent form

newest first

Penarol	WDWWWW
Progreso	LWWLWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Penarol and Progreso going into this match

league record before kick-off

Penarol record

They have won 20 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
They have kept 11 clean sheets in 32 matches.
They have failed to score in 5 of 32 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Progreso record

They have won 8 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
They have kept 4 clean sheets in 31 matches.
They have failed to score in 13 of 31 matches.
They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Penarol vs Progreso head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

9Penarol wins 1Draws 0Progreso wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-04-04	Progreso	Penarol	Uruguay Primera División	0-2
2025-08-01	Penarol	Progreso	Primera División - Clausura	2-1
2025-02-01	Progreso	Penarol	Uruguay Primera División	1-3
2024-11-27	Progreso	Penarol	Primera División - Clausura	1-5
2024-06-22	Progreso	Penarol	Primera División - Apertura	0-2
2024-05-23	Penarol	Progreso	Primera División - Apertura	3-1
2021-11-25	Progreso	Penarol	Primera División - Clausura	0-0
2021-08-14	Penarol	Progreso	Primera División - Apertura	1-0
2021-03-25	Progreso	Penarol	Primera División - Clausura	0-2
2020-10-06	Penarol	Progreso	Primera División - Apertura	2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Penarol vs Progreso odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 67.1%, draw 20.6%, away 12.3%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
1xBet	1.33	4.45	7.75
Bet365	1.38	4.33	7.00
BetVictor	1.36	4.33	7.50
Betano	1.40	4.25	6.60
Betfair	1.30	4.40	8.00
Dafabet	1.42	4.70	7.40
Marathonbet	1.32	4.45	7.40
Pinnacle	1.40	4.88	7.42
SBO	1.36	3.98	6.47
William Hill	1.36	4.50	7.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.36 ▲ +0.03

X 4.43 ▼ -0.32

2 7.40 ▼ -0.85

12 snapshots recorded, from 2026-10-05T08:10:01Z.