Penarol
vs
Progreso
Garuda Lions Prediction: Penarol
2 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
Penarol vs Progreso overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Penarol vs Progreso
| Probability | Penarol | Draw | Progreso |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 70.6% | 19.9% | 9.5% |
| Market | 66.8% | 20.7% | 12.5% |
| Final | 67.7% | 20.5% | 11.8% |
| Edge | +3.8% | -0.7% | -3.0% |
Why Penarol
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.15 vs 0.68.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
- The market prices Penarol below the model: +3.8 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.41, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Penarol vs Progreso match preview
Penarol is favored to win against Progreso with a probability of 69%, while a draw stands at 20% and Progreso at 11%. The expected goals for Penarol is 2.15, significantly higher than Progreso's 0.68, indicating a strong offensive presence from the home side. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 14% chance, and there is a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals in the match.
In terms of recent form, Penarol has been consistent with a streak of six matches, recording five wins and one draw, while Progreso has shown mixed results with four wins and two losses in their last six fixtures. Historically, Penarol has dominated their recent encounters, winning both of the last two head-to-head matches without conceding.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Penarol and Progreso expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.82
Penarol and Progreso attack and defence ratings
Penarol
Progreso
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Penarol vs Progreso markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Penarol | 67.7% | 1.48 | +3.8% | 1.41 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.6% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.8% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.2% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Penarol win | 46.9% | 2.13 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Penarol | 67.7% |
| Draw | 20.5% | |
| Progreso | 11.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.2% |
| No | 55.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 32.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Penarol win | 46.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.7% | |
| Loss | 29.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 13.7% |
| 1-0 | 11.9% | |
| 3-0 | 9.8% |
Penarol vs Progreso stats
Penarol and Progreso recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Penarol and Progreso season so far
Penarol record
- They have won 20 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Progreso record
- They have won 8 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Penarol vs Progreso head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Progreso | Penarol | Uruguay Primera División | 0-2 |
| 2025-08-01 | Penarol | Progreso | Primera División - Clausura | 2-1 |
| 2025-02-01 | Progreso | Penarol | Uruguay Primera División | 1-3 |
| 2024-11-27 | Progreso | Penarol | Primera División - Clausura | 1-5 |
| 2024-06-22 | Progreso | Penarol | Primera División - Apertura | 0-2 |
| 2024-05-23 | Penarol | Progreso | Primera División - Apertura | 3-1 |
| 2021-11-25 | Progreso | Penarol | Primera División - Clausura | 0-0 |
| 2021-08-14 | Penarol | Progreso | Primera División - Apertura | 1-0 |
| 2021-03-25 | Progreso | Penarol | Primera División - Clausura | 0-2 |
| 2020-10-06 | Penarol | Progreso | Primera División - Apertura | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Penarol vs Progreso odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 66.8%, draw 20.7%, away 12.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.33 | 4.45 | 7.75 |
| Bet365 | 1.38 | 4.33 | 7.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.36 | 4.33 | 7.50 |
| Betano | 1.40 | 4.20 | 6.80 |
| Betfair | 1.33 | 4.50 | 8.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.41 | 4.80 | 7.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.32 | 4.45 | 7.40 |
| Pinnacle | 1.39 | 4.76 | 7.19 |
| SBO | 1.34 | 3.89 | 6.28 |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 4.40 | 7.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .